To estimate the economic and distributional impacts of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in Vietnam, the World Bank constructed a baseline and four alternative scenarios.
The baseline reflects the business-as-usual conditions, where the tariff schedules of previous agreements, have been implemented, in parallel with the US-China trade war.
In the baseline, between 2020 and 2035, the average trade weighted tariff imposed by Vietnam declines from 0.8 percent to 0.2 percent, while the tariffs faced by Vietnam are reduced from 0.6 percent to 0.1 percent.
In the baseline, which incorporates long-term trends and accounts for all the current tariff liberalisation commitments within the region (except Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), real income in Vietnam is expected to grow more than 112 per cent between 2020 and 2035./.
