Business Monitor International (BMI)has raised its forecast about Vietnam's GDP growth in 2009 from 2.9percent to 4.5 percent because of the government's demand stimuluspolicy and improved export.
The London-basedindependent company said in the first half, Vietnam's economy grew by3.9 percent against a year earlier, an all-time low level, but themacro-economic information and statistics in the second and thirdquarters showed that the government's demand stimulation policy and thecentral bank's measures worked well.
However, BMI warned that Vietnam's economy needs recovery of theglobal demand so the country can have sustainable growth.
BMI's forecast is based on the government's demand stimulus policy andimproved export. However, the economy's growth due to the government'sdemand stimulus policy this year will make Vietnam meet difficulties in2010 when the government and the central bank have to cope withpossible high inflation.
The company has also raised the forecast on GDP growth in 2010 to 5.5percent from 5 percent. In long term, Vietnam 's GDP growth will returnto 8 percent by 2013 when the effects of the global economic recessionseases in 2009.
It said that the economic cooperation between Vietnam and Japan as well as EU will have many good progresses.
BMI added that Vietnam's economy in recent years has continuously beenone of Asia's fastest growing economies, posting an average GDP growthof 7.6 percent a year between 2000 and 2007. Vietnam has also been verysuccessful in poverty reduction.
Upon worrying over inflation and budget deficit, some investors havereduced their forecasts about Vietnam 's economy. If the governmentfocuses too much on stimulating the growth without settling root causesof inflation, instability will come, they fear.
BMI is optimistic about Vietnam 's economic growth prospects in thenext ten years. The challenges about macro-economy in 2008 and 2009will bring about valuable experience to Vietnam in dealing with crisis.
Policies play an important role in ensuring good development ofinfrastructure without making the economy have too hot growth. If thereare proper policies, Vietnam 's GDP growth in the next ten years mayreach 8 percent a year./.
The London-basedindependent company said in the first half, Vietnam's economy grew by3.9 percent against a year earlier, an all-time low level, but themacro-economic information and statistics in the second and thirdquarters showed that the government's demand stimulation policy and thecentral bank's measures worked well.
However, BMI warned that Vietnam's economy needs recovery of theglobal demand so the country can have sustainable growth.
BMI's forecast is based on the government's demand stimulus policy andimproved export. However, the economy's growth due to the government'sdemand stimulus policy this year will make Vietnam meet difficulties in2010 when the government and the central bank have to cope withpossible high inflation.
The company has also raised the forecast on GDP growth in 2010 to 5.5percent from 5 percent. In long term, Vietnam 's GDP growth will returnto 8 percent by 2013 when the effects of the global economic recessionseases in 2009.
It said that the economic cooperation between Vietnam and Japan as well as EU will have many good progresses.
BMI added that Vietnam's economy in recent years has continuously beenone of Asia's fastest growing economies, posting an average GDP growthof 7.6 percent a year between 2000 and 2007. Vietnam has also been verysuccessful in poverty reduction.
Upon worrying over inflation and budget deficit, some investors havereduced their forecasts about Vietnam 's economy. If the governmentfocuses too much on stimulating the growth without settling root causesof inflation, instability will come, they fear.
BMI is optimistic about Vietnam 's economic growth prospects in thenext ten years. The challenges about macro-economy in 2008 and 2009will bring about valuable experience to Vietnam in dealing with crisis.
Policies play an important role in ensuring good development ofinfrastructure without making the economy have too hot growth. If thereare proper policies, Vietnam 's GDP growth in the next ten years mayreach 8 percent a year./.
