In-depth study of 2019 population and housing census released hinh anh 1At a meeting to announce the outcomes of the study (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNA) -
If the sex ratio at birth remains unchanged, Vietnam is likely to record an excess of 1.5 million males aged 15-49 by 2034 and 2.5 million by 2059, an in-depth study of the 2019 population and housing census reveals.

The fifth of its kind since national reunification in 1975, the census collected basic demographic information on more than 96.2 million people in nearly 26.9 million households nationwide.

At a meeting to announce the outcomes of the study in Hanoi on December 18, Vu Thi Thu Thuy, Director of the Population and Labour Statistics Department at the General Statistics Office (GSO), said the birth rate in Vietnam is currently around the replacement fertility rate, which will slow population growth rate to less than 1 percent annually over the next 10 years.

There are considerable differences in the birth rate among regions and population groups, she stressed, saying it is quite high in some ethnic minority groups such as the Mong, with 3.59 children per woman.

Meanwhile, northern midland and mountainous localities and those in the Central Highlands have the highest birth rates, while the lowest being in southeastern Vietnam and the Mekong Delta.

With the current birth rate, population structure and imbalanced sex ratio at birth, the population will age and lack men in certain age groups in the future, the study pointed out.

It also made three forecasts (medium, low, and high) based on three scenarios of changes in the birth rate, deaths, and migration.

According to the medium forecast, the “golden population structure” in Vietnam will end in 2039 and the “elderly population” period will last for 28 years, from 2026 to 2054, followed by a “very elderly population” period from 2055 to 2069.

This will greatly affect the workforce and lead to many new social issues, GSO Director Nguyen Thi Huong said, adding that the outcomes of the study will serve as the basis for the preparation of socio-economic policies for the time ahead./.