Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) – Among 23 sectors listed on the stock market, four are expected to enjoy positive growth, nine forecast to see negative impacts in the short-term, while 10 others not likely to be affected.
The SSI Securities Corporation has recently revealed a report on short-term impacts of the acute respiratory disease caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 on 23 sectors listed on the stock market. Of which, four are expected to enjoy positive growth, nine are forecast to see negative impacts, while 10 not likely to be affected.
However, SSI analysts added that it is still too soon to give assessments on the development of the stock market and forecast on operations and profits of listed companies.
Nine sectors likely to be heavily affected
According to the report, nine sectors negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic include garment-textile, retail, fishery, beer, oil and gas, securities, seaports and transportation, airport services and aviation.
The disease will not deal a direct blow on the demand for garment-textile products, as most of Vietnam’s companies do not ship their products to China. Nevertheless, China’s GDP slowdown is likely to affect consumption in the long term.
Notably, China is a leading fabric supplier of Vietnam. Therefore, operations of Vietnamese businesses will be hurt as Chinese factories halted production in the first two months of the year.
Meanwhile, retail will suffer a direct blow because the number of people coming to physical stores will decline in a bid to refrain from going to public places, thereby protecting them from being infected.
Consumers are projected to switch from purchasing tech products to more necessary health care items, such as medicines.
In addition, analysts underlined that people’s shopping habit may change from traditional transactions to modern and online forms to ensure safety.
That consumers will keep away from public places is attributed to the decline of demand for beer and as a consequence, this sector will be severely hurt by the disease.
Exports of aquatic products to China are believed to plummet. Last year, the Chinese market accounted for 16.5 percent of total Vietnam’s aquatic exports. Of the figure, exports of shrimp held 16.1 percent and of tra (pangasius) fish, 33 percent.
Seaports and transportation, airport services and aviation will be negatively affected by the pandemic. Chinese passengers account for about 40 percent of Vietnam’s holidaymakers in 2019.
Besides, cargo transport relating to China will see a downward trend owning to the northern neighbour’s low demand and limited production.
Regarding the oil and gas sector, oil prices may continue to fall as investors are worried about the weakening demand for oil in China.
And the last among the nine sectors is the stock market. The market is said to go through a difficult time in the short term, but once the disease is controlled, it will bounce back remarkably as it did in the past.
Four sectors suffer fewer impacts, even prosper
In contrast to those aforementioned fields, the SSI report pointed out four sectors that will witness growth in the coming time.
The sector with the highest expectation is the pharmaceutical sphere. However, SSI experts noted that the increase may be unsteady and they have yet to notice a sign or major change in listed pharmaceutical firms amid the coronavirus disease.
Other sectors include information technology, power and clean water.
SSI analysts explained that even the economic growth slows down, targets assigned to IT projects are required to maintain competitiveness and reduce production and operation costs.
For the power sector, thermoelectricity plants will benefit from the plunge in crude oil prices in the first quarter.
The media also reported that the disease will not affect the water sector as demand stabilises at 7 percent per year with average retail prices growing 3-5 percent annually.
10 groups see no impacts
The automobile sector is believed to remain untouched by the novel coronavirus pandemic because experts held positive views on the field and predicted a growth rate of about 10-11 percent in revenues this year.
Commercial real estate, industrial parks and related sectors such as construction, steel and cement are also said to be unaffected.
The banking sector could suffer the impacts of the disease but just for a short term. Insurance firms may pay marginal higher compensation, as most of medical fees will be paid by social insurance.
Dairy firms are projected not to be affected by the pandemic. The dairy products are viewed as source of protein and easy to consume, especially when consumers avoid coming to public spaces and eating out.
Fertiliser is the last sector in the group thanks to oil price declines which resulted in cheaper material costs./.
