Hanoi (VNA) – Since officially entering the aging population phase in 2011, Vietnam has seen an unprecedented acceleration in demographic shifts that are now posing serious policy challenges.
Vietnam is entering a demographic crossroads that could deeply affect its economic and social future. While the country is still enjoying a period known as the "demographic dividend" — where each dependent person is supported by two working-age individuals, this window is closing rapidly.
Currently, people aged 15–64 make up 67.4% of the population, those under 15 account for 23.3%, and the elderly (65 and over) represent 9.3%. By 2036, Vietnam is projected to move fully into an “aged society”. While there were 14.2 million people aged 60 and older in 2024, this figure is expected to rise to nearly 18 million by 2030, said Assoc. Prof. Phan Le Thu Hang, deputy head of the planning and finance department at the Ministry of Health.
What makes Vietnam’s situation particularly urgent is the speed at which it is aging. Developed nations like France and Sweden took 85–115 years to move from an aging to an aged population. Vietnam is forecast to make that same transition in just 25 years — similar to Japan or Thailand.
Two driving forces behind this trend are rising life expectancy and declining fertility rate. Vietnam’s average life expectancy jumped from 65.5 years in 1993 to 74.7 years in 2024 — an impressive feat for a middle-income country and much higher than many countries with similar per capita income levels.
Simultaneously, the total fertility rate dropped to an all-time low of 1.91 children per woman, below the replacement level, according to the mid-term population and housing census conducted in 2024. Experience of many countries like European nations, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and China shows that once fertility drops, reversing the trend is extremely difficult.
Assoc. Prof. Phan Le Thu Hang from the Ministry of Health said the implications of this trend go beyond simple demographics. Aging is now a major national challenge due to structural limitations — particularly the mismatch between the pace of aging and Vietnam’s financial capacity to support it. The country is predicted to become "old before it gets rich." While Vietnam aims to reach high-income status by 2045, it will enter the aged population phase almost a decade earlier.
A need for policy shift
This has profound implications on public health, labour, social security, and macroeconomic stability. Older populations require more health care, and health care for the elderly is more expensive. Vietnam’s current health system relies heavily on hospitals, which are not always cost-effective or generate more effects for public health. At the same time, pharmaceutical costs and operational inefficiencies are likely to strain public finances.
Hang noted that Vietnam soon realised the importance of adapting to population aging and an aged society. It has taken early steps to prepare such as reforming the social security and health systems. But translating policy awareness into actionable and scalable programmes remains crucial. Vietnam needs integrated and cross-sector reform — connecting economic development, labour market, salary regime, investment, social security network, and health care, among others.
To adapt, she recommended increasing both individual and public savings, especially during the current period of “golden population”, when most people are still of working age. Wages should not only reflect minimum cost of living of individuals and a family of four (two working-age people and two dependents) but also allow room for savings. The availability and quality of long-term financial investment options like insurance for the elderly, real estate, and investment funds should also be improved.
In labour policy, Vietnam should focus on improving workforce productivity by investing in workers’ skills, health and momentum, while also encouraging older adults to remain active in suitable jobs.
Changing public attitudes toward aging is also essential. Citizens must be encouraged to prepare early for old age — financially, physically, and emotionally. In social security, the government should build a multi-layer and multi-pillar system that ensures broad coverage and improves the sustainability of the social insurance fund by reforming the investment portfolio, for example by expanding into promising but low-risk investment areas like the healthcare market.
Finally, the country needs to foster the development of a senior care industry — offering services, products, and solutions tailored to older adults — and enhance international labour cooperation in the fields Vietnam is strong at such as nursing, care-giving to the elderly, and social assistance. It is also necessary to adapt the healthcare system to the population aging, with a focus on improved public funding, long-term care insurance, preventive health, and digital technology.
In particular, Hang added, it is important to mobilise the engagement of relevant sides, including the not-for-profit and for-profit private stakeholders in supplying health and care services for senior citizens, and developing human resources in the field./.
