Bangkok (VNA) – Two leading research centres predicted that the March 28 earthquake may result in economic losses of 20-30 billion THB (585.4-878.1 million USD) in Thailand over the coming months.
Yunyong Thaicharoen, chief economist at the SCB Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC), a research unit of Siam Commercial Bank, was quoted by the Thai media as saying that the disaster is forecast to result in an economic loss of around 30 billion THB over the next 3-4 months.
The disaster will primarily affect Thailand’s tourism sector, he said, adding that foreign tourist arrivals are expected to decline by about 400,000 this month, with a recovery to normal levels taking around three months.
Given this scenario, EIC plans to downgrade its 2025 international tourist arrival forecast from 38.2 million. The quake has led to partial delays and cancellations of flights and hotel bookings by foreign visitors to Thailand.
Meanwhile, weakened confidence among condominium buyers, particularly in the high-rise segment, is likely to lead to delays in purchases and property transfers. As a result, EIC has adjusted its forecast for residential transfers in Bangkok and the metropolitan area, now predicting a 1% year-on-year contraction for 2025, instead of the previously anticipated marginal growth.
According to Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) under KBank, the economic loss from the earthquake is estimated at no less than 20 billion THB, equivalent to a dip of 0.06 percentage points in GDP based on initial assessments.
Key factors contributing to the loss include disruptions to business activity, delays in economic operations, and a decline in purchasing power, as households and businesses allocate resources toward damage assessments and repairs.
Regarding the banking sector, financial assistance measures are expected to stabilise overall credit quality, particularly in real estate, construction and mortgage lending.
However, K-Research noted that the earthquake may affect corporate bond redemptions by affected businesses later this year and could prompt domestic interest rate cuts amid weaker economic growth.
EIC and K-Research forecast Thai GDP growth for 2025 of 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively.
Deputy Minister of Finance Paopoom Rojanasakul, meanwhile, said he expected the economic impact from the quake would be limited and short-lived. He believes gross domestic product remains on track to reach the 3% target for the year./.
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