Vietnam News Agency discusses the report with Philip Schellekens,UNDP Chief Economist for Asia Pacific for further details.
What are the key findings ofthis report and how do you find them different from the previous one?
The 2024 Regional HumanDevelopment Report for Asia and the Pacific calls for a ‘reset’ in developmentstrategy.
It is high time that we do so.
Not only because the unfinished human development agenda in the region islarge. Indeed, while the region has long held a reputation as a strongperformer in human development, a deeper look reveals stubborn disparities,with millions being left behind. Consider for example the 500 million peopledeprived of basic education, health or living standards, the 800 million womenout of the labour force, or the 1.3 billion people living precarious lives inthe informal sector. Also, the region is not on track to achieve any of theSDGs by 2030.
But also because the region faces a potentially far more turbulent future,which left unchecked could amplify existing disparities and could continue tocause widespread disruption. The region stands at a crossroads where threemajor risk clusters converge. First, the existential threats stemming fromclimate change and future pandemics, amplified by urbanisation. Second, thedisruptions to established drivers of growth and job creation, at a time of newtrends in globalisation amid intense demographic and technological change.Third, the threats to the momentum of change resulting from democratic backsliding,rising populism and polarisation.
The 2024 Regional Human Development Report presents three new directions thatshould address the large development backlog and prepare countries better forthe turbulent future: (1) put people at the heart of any development strategy,to enlarge opportunity, reduce human insecurity, and meet the needs of futuregenerations, (2) recalibrate growth strategy, to sustain fast-enough growthwhile ensuring it is growth of the right kind (more job creating, morerespectful to the environment), and (3) make change happen, to turn new ideasinto practice through an unrelenting focus on the political economy of reformand the effectiveness of government delivery.
The previous RHDR dates to 2016 and was focused more narrowly on the topic ofdemographics. Asides from providing an updated picture of the state of humandevelopment, the 2024 RHDR is a bigger-picture think piece on how the regioncan navigate the turbulence ahead of us. It lays out a comprehensive agenda forchange, where the value-add lies in the integration of the three directions itadvocates for.
Does the report identify anyspecific risks facing Vietnam in term of human development? If so, what're yourassessments of Vietnam's capability to deal with those challenges?
No country in the region is adequately prepared to meet thechallenges of the future, marked by existential threats, risks to growth andjob creation, and risks to the momentum of reform. Vietnam is no exception tothis.
Looking ahead, progress will hinge on Vietnam’s capability to anticipatechanges in the development landscape and stay ahead of the curve by adaptingdevelopment strategies to these changes and implementing them with agilityacross the whole of government. These are the hallmarks of AAAG – anticipatory,adaptable and agile governance – a concept coined by UNDP Vietnam a few yearsago, partly in recognition of Vietnam’s past accomplishments in this sphere.
Consider how these ideas apply to one critical risk to human development: theheadwinds to growth and job creation.
The headwinds we are facing arise from multiple factors, many of which originateoutside Vietnam’s immediate control. The landscape of globalization isshifting, moving away from a highly supportive period of rapid internationalintegration to a more restrained phase characterized by a slowing ofcross-border production networking and increasing geopolitical tensions. At thesame time, the swift spread of innovative technologies worldwide istransforming the nature of production—its demand for labour and the veryfactors that determine a nation's competitive edge. For Vietnam to thrive inthis new environment, it needs to adapt.
But the headwinds are also internal. As is the case for any other country, theprocess of climbing up the income ladder means that the drivers of growthchange from accumulation-based models to approaches that are attuned toinnovation. The notion of a ‘middle-income trap’ is a mislabel for Vietnam;what the country actually confronts is a policy challenge to shift gears andadapt with agility. The real test lies in avoiding that the country entrenchesitself in low-value-adding assembly and processing activities, and insteadcontinues the process of moving up the value chain through constant innovationand improvement.
What would be yourrecommendations for Vietnam to advance its human development?
The Report highlights threedirections that are promising for human development amidst today’s turbulenttimes: people first, smart growth and bold action to drive change. Thesestrategies are complementary rather than hierarchical; an integratedapplication of all three is the optimal path forward.
But what does this mean moreconcretely for Vietnam?
A people-first approach iscrucial. With high levels of job insecurity reported by Vietnamese people (theWorld Values Survey indicates 80% is worried about losing their job), expandingopportunities through capability building is critical. This not only helpscreate jobs but also must go hand in hand with strengthening social protectionsystems to shield citizens from the anticipated upheaval. This overall approachalso includes initiatives for a fair energy transition, achieving carbonneutrality, conserving nature, and fostering risk-resilient development tosupport future generations.
Smarter growth is also necessary. While export-led growth is still a viableoption, Vietnam needs to target rapidly expanding markets more aggressively andenhance its competitive edge to increase its share of value chain income.Domestic market integration and subnational specialisation could furtherenhance growth dividends.
Vietnam must also be proactive in 'making change happen'. This meansmaintaining the flexibility to continuously refine its development strategiesin response to shifting landscapes. Given the likely turbulence ahead of us,the ability to adapt and be agile positions a nation to turn disruption intoopportunity. Recommendations include fostering forward-thinking and scenarioplanning, encouraging learning and unlearning to adopt new methods, andimproving inter-agency cooperation within the government./.
VNA
