Thailand’s rice prices forecast to rise 5 percent in Q2
Thai rice prices are expected to increase by 5 percent in the second quarter, pushed up by the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s effect on surging global commodity prices, said veteran trader Chookiat Ophaswongse.
Thai rice prices are expected to increase by 5 percent in the second quarter. (Photo: Bangkok Post)Chookiat, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said there was growing concern about a wheat shortage as Russia and Ukraine are the main producers of the crop, while rising oil prices are likely to drive up overall commodity prices.
Thai rice is expected to see just a 5 percent increase in prices in the second quarter because there are relatively high rice stocks in India, while rice production is expected to increase this year both in Vietnam and Thailand, said Chookiat.
For the 2021/2022 harvest season, the association said widespread drought is unlikely this year, as happened two years ago. Given the ample water supply, second-crop rice production is also expected to increase.
He said the war is unlikely to affect Thailand’s overall rice exports because shipments to Russia and Ukraine stood at only 6,000 tonnes and 3,000 tonnes, respectively, last year.
It is fortunate export markets in the Middle East, such as Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, will be back this year, Chookiat said, adding that these countries are net rice importers with a combined million tonnes each year.
The association projects exports rising 14.8 percent this year to 7 million tonnes, driven by ample water supply. Higher demand is likely thanks to a global economic recovery and a favourable exchange rate./.
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