Hanoi (VNA) - Director of the Vietnam Population Authority under the Ministry of Health Le Thanh Dung granted an interview to VietnamPlus about Vietnam’s population issues, including recent achievements and the challenges that lie ahead.
According to Dung, the golden population structure presents an excellent opportunity for a country to develop its economy. During this period, an abundant labor force can drive production and economic growth.
He noted that a golden population structure occurs only once for each nation, so a national strategy for labor and employment is essential to capitalize on this demographic advantage.
He said the golden population structure is characterized by the highest proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) compared to the dependent population (under 15 years old and over 64 years old). This situation typically arises when birth rates decline and life expectancy increases.
Vietnam’s population is in the transition stage from a replacement fertility level to a low fertility trend. It will now move from an early birth model to a late birth model, from a high death rate to a low death rate, and from a young population structure to an aging population.
The decreasing fertility, in addition to the impact on population size, also leads to a decrease in the proportion of children under 15 years old and an increase in the proportion of elderly people.
Currently, Vietnam is still in the process of an aging population and is one of the countries with the fastest aging rate in the world.
While it takes developed countries decades and some countries centuries to transition from the aging population stage to the old population stage, in Vietnam it will take only about 26 years.
In 2009, for every three children under 15 years old, there was only one person aged 60 or older. Then by 2019, for every two children under 15 years old, there will be one person aged 60 or older.
Accordingly, as fertility rates decrease further it accelerates the population aging process in Vietnam.
Thus, if fertility continues to decrease, the working age force will decrease in the future, while the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people will increase rapidly, leading to a very high proportion of the elderly in the total population.
Vietnam’s fertility model has shifted from the highest fertility rate in the age group from 20-24 years old to the age group from 25-29 years old, at the same time as the age of marriage increases, reducing the marriage rate.
This indicates a rising trend towards late marriage, reluctance to marry, reluctance to have children, delayed childbearing, and having fewer children.
Urbanization and economic development create pressures on seeking job opportunities, housing, living costs, and the expenses associated with raising and caring for children, which contribute to declining fertility rates.
Additionally, infrastructure for education, healthcare, and basic social services in industrial parks and economic zones still face significant shortcomings.
Over the past 30 years of implementing the action programme on population and development, Vietnam has reaped significant achievements. Notably, the population growth rate has been successfully controlled and the birth rate has been maintained around the replacement level. Vietnam entered the golden population period in 2007. The average life expectancy has increased rapidly, while the physical strength and quality of life of the public have been significantly improved.
The Prime Minister has issued the national population strategy, which outlines priorities until 2030. Specifically, it focuses on adjusting fertility levels to ensure the maintenance of national replacement fertility levels and reduce by 50 percent the fertility gap between rural and urban areas, mountainous areas, and plains. It also includes improving the quality of family planning services so that all women of childbearing age have convenient access to modern contraceptive methods, infertility prevention, and reproductive support./.
