Hanoi (VNA) – Many analysts believe that 2026 will not bring the kind of major “waves” of speculative house pricing previously seen in Vietnam’s property market. Instead, the sector is expected to operate increasingly on the basis of real value, genuine demand and the true capacity of developers.
The shift comes on the heels of an overheated market, during which high financial leverage, rapid price increases and speculative investment kept prices high. But these conditions are starting to ease of late.
Experts say the 2022–2024 period marked the strongest phase of market restructuring in more than a decade. Numerous developers exited the market, many projects stalled and prices in several segments were forced to adjust closer to real value. Signs of recovery began to emerge in 2025, although still cautious and clearly differentiated.
In 2026, the outlook is expected to improve further, and analysts do not foresee a return of widespread price surges. Dr Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at BIDV, said the market is moving from a phase of “technical recovery” to “structural stabilisation”.
“The next cycle will not see strong waves like those in 2016–2018 or 2020–2021,” he said, adding that growth will be slower but more sustainable, with opportunities concentrated in products with real demand, clear legal status and practical usability.
Improved macroeconomic stability is viewed as a key factor supporting this transition. Lending rates, having risen sharply in the previous period, have eased to more manageable levels, reducing financial pressure on both developers and homebuyers. Meanwhile, real estate credit policy is now applied more selectively rather than uniformly.
A major turning point will be the implementation of revised laws on land and property business from 2025–2026. According to Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, the legal framework will act as a natural filter for the market. Tighter and more transparent rules will leave little room for speculative or short-term projects. Development may slow, he said, but the market will become safer and more sustainable.
Public investment will remain a long-term growth driver but is unlikely to trigger short-term speculation. Major infrastructure projects such as the North–South Expressway, Ring Roads 3 and 4, Long Thanh International Airport and new metro lines are expected to support regional development rather than fuel rapid land-price escalation, Chau noted.
Opportunities shift towards real demand
With speculative waves receding, opportunities in 2026 are expected to centre on segments serving genuine demand, such as mid-income housing, well-planned urban areas, industrial property and assets generating stable cash flows.
Industrial real estate is forecast to remain a key growth pillar, supported by continued foreign investment. Analysts note rising demand for industrial land, ready-built factories and modern logistics space, with growing emphasis on green standards and operational efficiency.
Individual investors are also expected to return, favouring stable-income assets and lower leverage. Developers, meanwhile, will face higher requirements in financial strength and corporate governance.
Experts caution that while the outlook is positive, 2026 will not be a “promised land” for all. Opportunities will favour well-prepared enterprises, strong locations and realistic strategies. Overall, the market is expected to enter a more stable phase in which real value replaces speculative expectations, with rewards flowing to patient and informed clients./.
VNA
