HCM City (VNA) – As 2025 draws to a close, Vietnam’s economy is entering a pivotal stage in its 2026-2030 development cycle, with growing confidence and readiness to accelerate growth. Despite global uncertainties, economists believe that Vietnam possesses strong internal foundations to sustain robust momentum into 2026.
These insights were shared at the Vietnam Investment Forum 2026 (VIF 2026), co-organised by VietnamBiz and Viet Nam Moi in Ho Chi Minh City on November 4.
Bright prospects from domestic strength, macroeconomic stability
For 2026, the Government has set an ambitious target of double-digit GDP growth, highlighting the 10% milestone as a marker of recovery and renewed momentum. To achieve this, a series of major policy decisions are being introduced to strengthen internal capacity and remove institutional bottlenecks.
According to Dr. Phan Duc Hieu, standing member of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, the volume of policies passed by the legislature has grown “exponentially” in less than two years. At the 7th session in early 2024, the legislative body approved 13 major decisions, whereas the ongoing 10th session is expected to deliberate on as many as 50 bills and three regulatory resolutions, alongside key infrastructure initiatives such as expressways, railways, and airports.
Dr. Hieu said this surge reflects a “new spirit of action” within the National Assembly, which has shifted from a rigid annual plan of 10-12 laws to a more flexible, demand-driven approach.
Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, predicted that Vietnam’s growth in 2026 would outpace that of 2025, provided macroeconomic policies remain flexible and risks related to monetary policy, inflation, and public debt are well managed.
He stressed that the experience of the past five years demonstrates Vietnam’s resilience: despite multiple global shocks, the economy maintained average annual growth of 6.5-7%, with some years exceeding 8%.
Improved endogenous capacity, political and social stability, strong domestic consumer confidence, and growing international credibility of Vietnamese businesses are the pillars supporting sustained growth in 2026, he said.
Based on Vietnam’s 8.2% GDP growth in Q3 2025, Sacha Dray, Senior Economist at the World Bank, assessed that Vietnam continues to display remarkable adaptability amid global trade fluctuations and rising tariff risks. Government support measures have eased economic uncertainty, normalised trade flows, and spurred exports. He projected that Vietnam’s export sector will see a clear recovery in the coming period, contributing positively to 2026 growth.
From a business perspective, Dang Van Thanh, Chairman of TTC Group, described 2026 as marking “a new race track” for Vietnam’s economy, with entrepreneurs at the centre of growth. He pointed to Politburo Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW on private sector development and National Assembly Resolution No. 198/2025/QH15 on special mechanisms for the private economy as “crucial accelerators” reflecting the State’s strong partnership with the business community toward sustainable growth.
Policy focus shifting toward stimulating domestic demand
Despite positive growth prospects, experts emphasised that Vietnam should shift its policy focus from supply-side to demand-side measures to ensure sustainable growth in the coming years.
According to Thanh, current policies primarily support the supply side through public investment and business incentives while lacking strong tools to stimulate domestic consumption. He proposed that the Government encourage private spending by reducing personal income tax or introducing time-limited consumption vouchers instead of direct cash transfers.
“This would enhance the circulation of money while boosting consumer demand,” he said, noting that domestic consumption remains the slowest-recovering pillar of the economy. He projected GDP growth of 8-10% in 2026, driven by public investment, a strengthened private sector, and a rebound in household spending.
Emphasiing the critical role of public investment during this transition, Dr. Le Duy Binh argued that government capital is essential to expand economic space and meet infrastructure needs. However, he warned that excessive reliance on public spending could crowd out private investment.
Dr. Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, observed that inflation risk remains low given that consumer demand has not fully recovered. However, he noted that exchange rate stability remains a sensitive issue amid ongoing dollarisation. If the exchange rate is kept steady, he said, monetary policy in 2026 should continue a moderately accommodative stance, creating favourable conditions for businesses to expand production, investment, and job creation./.
VNA
