Illustrative image (Photo: businesstimes.com.sg) Hanoi (VNA) – Analysts from BofA Global Research estimated that about 7 percentof total employees, or 20.7 million, in ASEAN-6 economies could be laid off dueto the COVID-19.
The ASEAN-6 region - Indonesia, Vietnam,the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore - could see as many as 20.7million jobs axed, led by Indonesia at 9.4 million, they said.
They warnedthat a crash in the labour market “will also threaten the economic recoveryexpected once the pandemic fades”.
Retrenchments could number in the millions in Indonesia, Vietnam, thePhilippines and Thailand, based on the share of workers in small businesses andinformal employment.
“Indonesia and Thailand areat risk of a historically large downturn, while significant labour pain isexpected for the rest,” wrote the analysts, citing factors such as the expectedrecession size, employment profile, and fiscal policy response of each country.
Given the nature of the shock, workers in particular sectors are more at risk oflosing their jobs than others, they said. Services activities such asaccommodation and food, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate andbusiness services are likely to be particularly hard hit.
While some countries have allowedmanufacturing activities to continue, the sector will feel the brunt of thedrop in global demand.
Only Singapore and Malaysia offer direct relief for labour costs through wagesubsidies, while other countries lean on cash transfers and tax incentives, theyremarked.
“Given that risks arestill skewed to the downside, we continue to believe that more, andbetter-targeted, help is needed,” they suggested./.
The ASEAN-6 region - Indonesia, Vietnam,the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore - could see as many as 20.7million jobs axed, led by Indonesia at 9.4 million, they said.
They warnedthat a crash in the labour market “will also threaten the economic recoveryexpected once the pandemic fades”.
Retrenchments could number in the millions in Indonesia, Vietnam, thePhilippines and Thailand, based on the share of workers in small businesses andinformal employment.
“Indonesia and Thailand areat risk of a historically large downturn, while significant labour pain isexpected for the rest,” wrote the analysts, citing factors such as the expectedrecession size, employment profile, and fiscal policy response of each country.
Given the nature of the shock, workers in particular sectors are more at risk oflosing their jobs than others, they said. Services activities such asaccommodation and food, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate andbusiness services are likely to be particularly hard hit.
While some countries have allowedmanufacturing activities to continue, the sector will feel the brunt of thedrop in global demand.
Only Singapore and Malaysia offer direct relief for labour costs through wagesubsidies, while other countries lean on cash transfers and tax incentives, theyremarked.
“Given that risks arestill skewed to the downside, we continue to believe that more, andbetter-targeted, help is needed,” they suggested./.
VNA
