Bangkok (VNA) – The Economic Confidence Index for retail entrepreneurs of Thailand in January 2026 dropped by 29.9 points compared to December 2025, shows a survey conducted by the Thai Retailers Association in collaboration with the Bank of Thailand.
This sharp decline highlights growing concerns within the retail sector, driven primarily by political uncertainty surrounding the general election and prolonged economic challenges.
Retailers are increasingly worried about delays in forming a stable government, which could hinder the implementation of policies needed to stimulate domestic spending and economic recovery, according to the survey results.
The main driver behind the drop in confidence is uncertainty over the outcome of the February 2026 election. Retailers fear that no single party will win a majority, potentially resulting in a coalition government. This scenario could delay the formation of a new administration and slow the rollout of economic policies and recovery measures. Consequently, many businesses expect continued challenges in 2026, particularly if economic stimulus efforts are postponed following the establishment of the new government.
The survey results also revealed a significant reduction in key retail metrics, such as same-store sales growth (SSSG), spending per bill, and shopping frequency. Spending per bill dropped sharply from 54.9 points in December 2025 to 26.3 points in January 2026, a decline of 28.6 points. Likewise, shopping frequency decreased from 54.9 points to 31.9 points, a drop of 23 points.
These trends suggest that consumers are exercising caution in their spending, particularly after the New Year holidays, due to the uncertain political climate and worries about the economy.
Retailers nationwide are bearing the impact of economic and political instability. In Bangkok and surrounding areas, which account for 43% of the national retail and wholesale market, sales fell across most sectors, notably department stores, fashion and cosmetics. In the central, eastern and western regions, where incomes rely heavily on industrial estates and agriculture, large chain stores and restaurants recorded sharp declines.
Although supermarkets and convenience stores experienced only slight declines, they still reflect weak consumer spending power.
Retailers are predicting a significant downturn in sales for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
According to the Thai Retailers Association’s latest survey in collaboration with the Bank of Thailand, 65% of retailers expect their performance to decline, driven by the ongoing political uncertainty and the weak economy at the start of the year./.
