It will be very difficult for Vietnam to achieve a per capita GDP of2,300 USD by 2015 as targeted, veteran economist Le Dang Doanh told Nongthon Ngay nay (Countryside Today) newspaper.
* Inhis report delivered early this week at the ongoing National Assemblymeeting, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said Vietnam would aim for GDPof 2,300 USD per capita by 2015. Is this achievable?
Using US dollars to calculate GDP per capita in our country will create a big gap compared to people's real income.
According to the Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO), our GDP percapita in 2012 was 1,749 USD. And this year, it is expected to be about1,914 USD - an increase of 9.4 percent.
Thecountry's economy is expected to be worth about 173 billion USD.However, in the current economic downturn, personal income is much lowerthan the figure projected by the GSO.
That's whyreaching 2,300 USD per capita by 2015 would require our economy toachieve very high average growth. I don't know how we are going toachieve such an ambitious target.
It is a matter offact that our economy is downsizing. Our people are facing manydifficulties. I think the government should explain to the people whatthe country will do to achieve that target.
I'dlike to point out that, in 2012, the Vietnamese dong lost 3 percent ofits value against the US dollar due to high inflation. Thus, per capitaGDP in US dollars was already higher than the people's actual income inVietnamese dong.
Furthermore, in 2012 the inflation rate was 9.2 percent.
* Although in term of figures, our per capita GDP has increased,living conditions are not much better. Is this a fair assessment?
Given the depreciation of local currency, people's purchasing demandshave increased in recent years. That means they need more money.
Right now I don't think there is any comprehensive analysis availableon the real income of the Vietnamese people over the last few years. ButI'm pretty confident that their real per capita GDP is not as high asthat reported by the GSO.
* In its VietnamDevelopment Report 2009, the World Bank said Vietnam's per capita GDPwas 51 years behind Indonesia, 95 years behind Thailand and 158 yearsbehind Singapore. Do you think these figures reflected the true pictureof our economy at that time?
Well, the WB commentshould be considered as food for thought for Vietnam. I have to concedethat the real income of our people is still far away from those of otherASEAN nations and China, though it has improved sizeably in the last 25years.
Vietnam has become a middle income countryin accordance with WB criteria. However, looking at it from a differentperspective, I think our economic growth has not truthfully reflectedboth the nation's resolve and capacity to prevent falling back behind.
* So what should we do to improve our income per capita?
The first priority is to score a higher GDP. The second is tostabilise the exch ange rate. And perhaps more importantly, there needsto be sustainable development.
Vietnam must be ableto maintain a high GDP for many consecutive years. In the immediatefuture, we must reduce the inflation rate, while retaining ourcurrency's value against major foreign currencies, particularly the USdollar.-VNA
* Inhis report delivered early this week at the ongoing National Assemblymeeting, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said Vietnam would aim for GDPof 2,300 USD per capita by 2015. Is this achievable?
Using US dollars to calculate GDP per capita in our country will create a big gap compared to people's real income.
According to the Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO), our GDP percapita in 2012 was 1,749 USD. And this year, it is expected to be about1,914 USD - an increase of 9.4 percent.
Thecountry's economy is expected to be worth about 173 billion USD.However, in the current economic downturn, personal income is much lowerthan the figure projected by the GSO.
That's whyreaching 2,300 USD per capita by 2015 would require our economy toachieve very high average growth. I don't know how we are going toachieve such an ambitious target.
It is a matter offact that our economy is downsizing. Our people are facing manydifficulties. I think the government should explain to the people whatthe country will do to achieve that target.
I'dlike to point out that, in 2012, the Vietnamese dong lost 3 percent ofits value against the US dollar due to high inflation. Thus, per capitaGDP in US dollars was already higher than the people's actual income inVietnamese dong.
Furthermore, in 2012 the inflation rate was 9.2 percent.
* Although in term of figures, our per capita GDP has increased,living conditions are not much better. Is this a fair assessment?
Given the depreciation of local currency, people's purchasing demandshave increased in recent years. That means they need more money.
Right now I don't think there is any comprehensive analysis availableon the real income of the Vietnamese people over the last few years. ButI'm pretty confident that their real per capita GDP is not as high asthat reported by the GSO.
* In its VietnamDevelopment Report 2009, the World Bank said Vietnam's per capita GDPwas 51 years behind Indonesia, 95 years behind Thailand and 158 yearsbehind Singapore. Do you think these figures reflected the true pictureof our economy at that time?
Well, the WB commentshould be considered as food for thought for Vietnam. I have to concedethat the real income of our people is still far away from those of otherASEAN nations and China, though it has improved sizeably in the last 25years.
Vietnam has become a middle income countryin accordance with WB criteria. However, looking at it from a differentperspective, I think our economic growth has not truthfully reflectedboth the nation's resolve and capacity to prevent falling back behind.
* So what should we do to improve our income per capita?
The first priority is to score a higher GDP. The second is tostabilise the exch ange rate. And perhaps more importantly, there needsto be sustainable development.
Vietnam must be ableto maintain a high GDP for many consecutive years. In the immediatefuture, we must reduce the inflation rate, while retaining ourcurrency's value against major foreign currencies, particularly the USdollar.-VNA
