Optimistic outlook with exports accelerating in remaining months

Hanoi (VNA) - In the nine-month export picture, all groups of markets that Vietnam has signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with have seen positive growth.

After nine months, Vietnam’s export value exceeded 194 billion USD, up 8.2 percent year-on-year. (Photo: VietnamPlus)

The export picture of Vietnam has recorded many positive bright spots. After nine months, the trade surplus remained high. Along with that, businesses have also sped up production to fulfill the set goals.

Trade surplus reaches nearly 6 billion USD

When releasing the country’s socio-economic data in the first six months, the General Statistics Office (GSO) warned of signs of trade deficit, even at only 34 million USD. However, after only three months, along with many macroeconomic management policies and the engagement of enterprises, exports have seen many positive results.

The latest data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) shows that by the end of the third quarter, the export turnover reached 194.3 billion USD, up 8.2 percent year-on-year and equal to 73.9 percent of the yearly plan.

This is a quite high growth rate as compared to an increase of 5.3 percent in the first three months and 7.2 percent in the first half.

Along with the export expansion, the trade balance much improved after nine months, with a trade surplus of nearly 6 billion USD in the context that many major economies in the world were facing difficulties and even a slowdown.

Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh said that the domestic economic sector reached nearly 60 billion USD, up 16.4 percent and higher than the growth rate of the foreign invested sector (at 5 percent).

Notably, the structure of export goods continued to improve in a positive direction, reducing shipments of raw materials and increasing exports of processed and industrial products, creating favourable conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate deeper into global production and supply chains.

After nine months, the country had 28 commodities with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for nearly 90 percent of total export revenue. High year-on-year growth was seen in major markets such as the United States, the EU, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

-         Trade balance in nine months

Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)

Ngo Chung Khanh, Deputy Director of the MoIT’s Multilateral Trade Department, said that after Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP) was put into effect, Vietnam’s exports to the CPTPP members recorded positive changes, with sharp increases seen in goods of Vietnam’s strength.

Besides, export value in many markets also recorded a significant increase. For example, exports to Canada rose by 33 percent while those to Mexico went up nearly 24 percent.

Positive outlook

Along with the results achieved in the third quarter, many international agencies and organisations have made positive forecasts for the domestic economy.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.8 percent in 2019 and 6.7 percent in 2020, while Citigroup Inc. has revised the full year growth forecast for the Vietnamese economy to 6.9 percent from 6.7 percent made previously.

At the Government press conference on October 4, Minister-Chairman of the Government Office Mai Tien Dung announced many positive results after nine months with many fields recording higher achievements than the plans.

Accordingly, GDP growth reached the highest level year-on-year in nine years, while inflation was controlled at the lowest level in the past three years and social investment increased sharply, especially in the non-State sector.

Notably, the processing and manufacturing industry continued to be the main driver for economic growth in Q3 with an expansion of 10.3 percent compared to the same period last year. Export growth was higher than 82.6 percent in 2018 and 81.1 percent in 2017.

Many trade promotion activities are organized to boost domestic consumption (Photo: VietnamPlus)

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also gave many positive signals in exports. Specifically, exports in 2019 continue to have many advantages from the strongly improved business investment environment.

Moreover, the CPTPP, which officially came into effect in early 2019, has been creating a new attraction to foreign direct investment, helping Vietnam gain more production capacity.

Domestic investment is forecast to prosper in the coming time as it has been supported by optimistic sentiment, monetary policy, and stable exchange and interest rates.

However, to create momentum for exports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has been implementing many measures to expand the market and create sources of goods for export. It has made a radical change in trade promotion to support Vietnam's exports.

Particularly, for the Chinese market, which is the largest trading partner and the second largest export market of Vietnam, after the United States, the ministry leaders recently had meetings with representatives of the neighbouring Chinese provinces to consider adding a number of border gates that allow the imports of Vietnamese agricultural products and fruits.

This effort has been contributing to the fulfillment of the goal of 7-8 percent in export growth set by the National Assembly for this year.

In his speech delivered at the regular Cabinet meeting on October 4, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said that all the set targets will be completed comprehensively in 2019, marking the second consecutive year all 12 key targets to be fulfilled, with five exceeding the plans.

“It is worth mentioning that growth is good not only in quantity but also in quality. Economic growth meets the set goal while macroeconomic stability is maintained, inflation is well controlled, and economic balances are improved,” the Government leader stressed./.