Thailand’s economy forecast to see better recovery in 2023

Thailand’s economy forecast to see better recovery in 2023 (Photo: eastasiaforum)

Bangkok (VNA) – Thailand's economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022 as reduced exports and factory activity, together with tightening monetary conditions, curbed private consumption, according to a recent Reuters poll of economists.

As mentioned by median forecast of 19 economists polled from February 9-15, growth in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast at 3.5% year-on-year in the October-December period, down from 4.5% growth in the prior quarter.

The survey showed, on a quarterly basis, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to have grown a seasonally-adjusted 0.5%, a significant slowdown from 1.2%  in the previous quarter. The official data will be released on February  17.

A separate Reuters poll found, the Thai economy was expected to grow 3.7% this year and 3.8% in 2024, before slowing to 3.2% in 2025.

Bansi Madhavani, senior economist at ANZ, said China's border reopening should provide renewed impetus for Thailand's recovery in 2023 and help offset some of the weakness from the goods export sector.

He revealed that firmer growth will in turn give the Bank of Thailand (BoT) some scope to continue its path of gradual monetary policy normalisation.

The BOT has raised rates by a total of 100 basis points since August to 1.5%, though the tightening cycle has been less aggressive than that of many of its peers as Thailand's economic recovery has lagged other Southeast Asian nations.

A majority of economists in the Reuters poll expected the BoT to implement another modest rate hike at its policy meeting on March 29./.