Hanoi (VNA) – Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 to 7.7% from its earlier 7.5% prediction, thanks to stronger-than-expected economic performance in the third quarter.
According to the bank’s report, Vietnam’s real GDP surged by 8.23% year-on-year in Q3, supported by strong exports performance and production despite US tariffs.
This is a further extension of the 8.19% pace in Q2 (revised higher from earlier estimate of 7.96%), and well ahead of Bloomberg projection of 7.2% and the UOB’s forecast of 7.6%. In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.85% year-on-year.
UOB experts noted that this impressive performance was largely driven by exports which surged 16% year-on-year with shipment to the US registering a rise of 27.7%. Industrial production also recorded broad-based growth, rising 10.8% in the January-September period, compared to the 9.4% increase seen in the same period of 2024.
The manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, marking the third consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, reversing the downward trend of the previous three months. This indicates that manufacturing prospects are stabilising, further supported by accelerating disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI). It reached 18.8 billion USD in the first nine months, up 8.5% year-on-year. If this momentum continues into Q4, total FDI for the year could approach the record of 25.4 billion USD achieved in 2024.
With growth of 7.85% in the first three quarters, Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2025 remains positive. However, due to the high comparison base in the Q4 of 2024, the final quarter of the year is expected to face significant challenges given tariff pressures and trade tensions. Therefore, UOB maintains its forecast for fourth-quarter growth in 2025 at 7.2%, while revising its full-year growth projection up to 7.7% from the previous 7.5%, the experts said.
To achieve the growth target of 8.3%–8.5%, the fourth quarter of 2025 would need to see exceptional expansion of between 9.7% and 10.5%, they noted.
SBV keeps policy rates unchanged
Given the strong economic performance over the past nine months and no signs of slowdown, UOB believes the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has little room to ease monetary policy. Inflation pressures also persist, with September inflation at 3.38% year-on-year, up from 3.24% in August. Since the beginning of this year, headline inflation averaged 3.3% and core inflation 3.2%, with core inflation already exceeding the levels seen in 2024 (2.9%) and 2023 (3%).
The foreign exchange market remains a key factor in the SBV’s policy considerations. The Vietnamese dong (VND) was the second-weakest currency in Asia in January-September, depreciating 3.55% against the US dollar, slightly stronger than the Indian rupee’s 3.58% decline but weaker than the Indonesian rupiah’s 3.38%.
The Vietnamese dong remains near its record low of 26,436 VND per US dollar recorded in August, as the SBV continues guiding the reference rate downward.
In this context, UOB maintains a cautious outlook on the VND and revises its USD/VND forecasts as follows: 26,400 in Q4 2025; 26,300 in Q1 2026; 26,200 in Q2 2026; and 26,100 in Q3 2026
Suan Teck Kin, Head of Research & Executive Director for Global Economics & Markets at UOB, pointed out that the outlook through the end of 2025 remains positive, driven by strong performance over the first three quarters of the year, particularly in the export sector.
Currently, Vietnam is among the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN, with a projected growth rate of over 7%, outpacing Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.6%-5.3%), Singapore (3.52%), and Thailand (2%-3%). The manufacturing sector has been a key differentiator and main growth driver, generating higher added value compared to resource-based industries such as agriculture or mining, thereby reinforcing Vietnam’s solid position in the region./.
