HCM City (VNA) – Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2025 has been revised up to 6.9% from the previous projection of 6% by the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) due to stronger-than-expected performance in the second quarter.
In a report released on July 8 by UOB's Global Economics & Market Research Unit, Vietnam’s real GDP in the second quarter of this year expanded by 7.96% year-on-year.
This figure significantly exceeded Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85%, UOB’s projection of 6.1%, and the revised growth of 7.05% in the first quarter. In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.52% year-on-year, the strongest H1 performance since data became available in 2011. This robust growth was largely driven by businesses accelerating fulfillment of export orders during the 90-day window in which the US temporarily suspended reciprocal tariffs, opting instead for a basic 10% tariff rate.
In H1, Vietnam’s export turnover rose by 14.4% compared to the same period last year, hitting 219 billion USD, while imports increased by 17.9% to 212 billion USD. These figures are nearly equivalent to the full-year growth rate recorded in 2024.
Computers and electronic products remained the largest export items in the first half of 2025, surging 42% year-on-year to 47.7 billion USD. This was followed by mobile phones, down 1.1% to 26.9 billion USD, and machinery and equipment, up 16.3% to 27 billion USD. These three categories accounted for about 46% of the total exports during the period, underscoring Vietnam's heavy dependence on these sectors.
However, Vietnam's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the manufacturing sector has yet to return to a solid growth trajectory. Over the past seven months, the PMI fell below the 50-point threshold six times, signalling ongoing challenges facing the sector, particularly due to a decline in new orders.
According to S&P Global, Vietnam’s export orders in June dropped at the sharpest pace since September 2021, matching the decline recorded in May 2023.
The worst is over
With recent positive developments in trade negotiations with the US, UOB experts predicted that the worst may be over for Vietnam, but tariffs remain a significant barrier for the country.
In light of the newly adjusted US tariffs on Vietnamese goods – 20%, UOB has revised its forecast for Vietnam’s exports to the US, now expecting a 5% increase, a significant improvement from the previously projected 20% decline.
For markets outside the US, UOB expects exports to grow by 10%, close to the 11.3% increase recorded in 2024. Vietnam’s exports are projected to rise by 8.5% in 2025, a noticeable slowdown compared to the 14% growth seen the previous year.
Based on these assumptions and after factoring in the impacts on manufacturing and FDI inflows, UOB's Global Economics & Market Research Unit estimated that Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 will be 0.9 percentage point higher than its initial baseline forecast, reaching 6.9% compared to the previous projection of 6.0%.
Regarding the monetary policy, UOB said that the positive economic growth performance may have eased the pressure for further loosening the policy. As a result, it expects the State Bank of Vietnam to maintain its current policy rates, with the refinancing rate held steady at 4.5%.
“If domestic business and labour market conditions deteriorate sharply in the next 1-2 quarters, we see the possibility of the SBV lowering the refinancing rate in a single step to the COVID-19 low of 4%, followed by another 50 base point cut to 3.5%, provided that the foreign exchange market is stable and the US Fed moves ahead with rate cuts," UOB said. "For now, our base case remains no change to the SBV policy"./.
