Hanoi (VNA) - In Q1, Vietnam's economy achieved significant milestones, laying a solid foundation for growth throughout 2024. Key sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services remained vibrant, contributing to high growth rates.
According to the General Statistics Office, the economy continued its positive trend in Q1 with stable macroeconomic conditions, controlled inflation, and balanced major indicators.
To delve deeper into this topic, VietnamPlus interviewed Dr. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office.
Promising start
- Could you highlight some positive aspects of the economy in the first three months of the year?
Dr. Nguyen Thi Huong: In the initial months, the domestic economy achieved critical results, setting the stage for growth in subsequent quarters. Specifically, Q1 GDP growth reached 5.66% compared to the same period last year.
In agriculture, the winter-spring rice harvest progressed faster than the previous year, with increased output in perennial crops, livestock, forestry, and fisheries.
Industrial production saw a significant drop in inventory levels, with an average Q1 inventory rate of 68.7%, down from 81.1% in Q1 2023. This indicates a positive economic trend.
Additionally, trade and services remained active, maintaining high growth rates.
Retail sales of goods and consumer services grew by 8.2%, passenger transport increased by 8.5%, and freight transport by 13%.
Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of 8.08 billion USD, with key exports including phones and components, wood products, cameras, and agricultural products.
In tourism, international arrivals eclipsed 4.6 million, a 72% increase year-on-year and a 3.2% rise from pre-COVID-19 levels in 2019.
This growth was driven by effective visa policies and promotional programmes, indicating a robust recovery in the tourism sector.
Vietnam also remains an attractive destination for foreign investment amid a global trade and investment downturn. As of March 20, 644 new foreign-invested projects were licensed, totaling 4.77 billion USD, with actual disbursements reaching 4.63 billion USD, the highest in five years.
Domestically, inflation was relatively stable, with the average Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.77% year-on-year, and core inflation at 2.81%.
Economic Outlook for 2024
Could you share your insights on the global and Vietnamese economic outlook for the remainder of the year?
Dr. Nguyen Thi Huong: As of March, most international organisations have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for 2024.
The UN and the World Bank both predicted global GDP growth to slow to 2.4% in 2024 from 2.7% in 2023.
The OECD forecast 2.9% growth, down from 3.1%, while the EU predicted 3.3%, down from 3.5% from 2023.
For Vietnam, international organisations anticipated higher growth in 2024 compared to 2023.
The World Bank projected 5.5% growth, up from 4.7% in 2023, and the UN and AMRO forecast 6%, compared to 4.7% and 5.1% in 2023, respectively.
These projections are based on stable personal consumption, reduced inflationary pressures, a recovering labor market, and increased tourism revenue.
Six core solutions
- What measures are necessary to sustain recovery and achieve the set economic goals for the rest of the year?
Dr. Nguyen Thi Huong: To successfully develop the socio-economic landscape in 2024 and ensure sustainable growth, we propose the following solutions:
Firstly, maintain macroeconomic stability, control prices and markets, ensure the supply of goods, and balance the economy.
Secondly, boost domestic consumption and develop the domestic market. Conduct trade promotion programmes, including digital platforms and e-commerce to expand domestic consumption by promoting Vietnamese products.
Thirdly, implement measures to promote exports, focusing on major and potential markets, and capitalize on existing trade agreements.
Fourthly, ensure effective implementation and disbursement of public investment, attracting high-quality foreign investment.
Fifthly, enhance disease prevention and disaster preparedness, map out agricultural production strategies, and ensure effective social welfare policies.
Focus on developing high-quality human resources in emerging fields like semiconductors to meet business demands.
Sixthly, improve the efficiency of administrative management and leadership across all sectors. Strengthen discipline, accountability, and transparency to create a conducive business environment. Focus on resolving administrative obstacles and advancing digital transformation.
Thank you!
