Vietnam forecasts trade surplus of 4 billion USD in H1

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), export turnover alone is projected to reach 215–217 billion USD, up approximately 13.8–14%. This results in an estimated trade surplus of 3.4–4 billion USD.

Vietnam’s import and export of goods. (Photo: VNA)
Vietnam’s import and export of goods. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in the first half of 2025 is estimated at 426–430 billion USD, representing an increase of 15.5–15.8% compared to the same period in 2024.

Strong growth across key export sectors

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), export turnover alone is projected to reach 215–217 billion USD, up approximately 13.8–14%. This results in an estimated trade surplus of 3.4–4 billion USD. Compared to the export growth scenario set out in Government Resolution No. 25 dated February 5, 2025, this performance has broadly met expectations and, in some areas, exceeded them.

Several export categories posted high growth rates, notably industrial goods such as electronics, textiles, and footwear, along with agricultural products.

Notably, proactive market adaptation helped the textile and garment sector maintain positive momentum. In May 2025, textile exports reached 3.84 billion USD, a 6% year-on-year increase and the highest monthly export value ever recorded for May, surpassing the surge seen in May 2022 amid post-pandemic overordering. Vietnamese textile products are now present in 132 markets, with the US remaining the largest importer, accounting for 6.97 billion USD, up 17%.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, agricultural exports in the first six months of 2025 are estimated at 18.3 billion USD, up 16.8% year-on-year. Coffee stood out, with exports hitting 5.5 billion USD, more than double the 2.7 billion USD recorded in the same period last year and surpassing the full-year total of 5.4 billion USD in 2024. This is the first time Vietnam’s coffee industry has achieved such figures within the first half of a year.

Overall, strong performances across multiple sectors have contributed to the country’s robust export results in the first half of the year. These outcomes also underscore how Vietnamese enterprises are capitalising on free trade agreements to expand market access, boost competitiveness, improve product quality, and enhance supply chain sustainability.

clip-2.jpg
Processing agricultural products for export (Photo: VNA)

Preparing adaptive scenarios for global market fluctuations

The MoIT noted that trade indicators continue to reflect a positive recovery trend, closely aligning with the country’s growth scenarios. However, external risks persist, including trade policies of major economies, global price volatility, and geopolitical tensions.

Vietnam has set a 2025 export growth target of 12%, equivalent to about 450 billion USD in export turnover. The target remains within reach if the current growth pace is sustained in the second half of the year.

Mai Thu Hien, Deputy Director of the MoIT’s Department of Planning and Finance, said the ministry will continue focusing on timely market information dissemination to industry associations, enabling businesses to adapt production plans and seek new orders. It will also provide regular updates on global market developments, foreign regulations, standards, and conditions that may impact Vietnam’s trade, along with relevant recommendations for local authorities, associations, and exporters.

The ministry will take the initiative in designing timely policies and response measures. MoIT departments are working together to develop forecast models, conduct market analysis, and prepare responsive strategies in case of rising global trade tensions. Concurrently, efforts to diversify export markets will be ramped up, targeting both new and traditional destinations.

The MoIT will also continue to maximise the benefits of existing trade agreements. It will collaborate with organisations that issue certificates of origin, issue warnings on high-risk goods vulnerable to origin fraud, and dispatch inspection teams when necessary.

Trade promotion activities will be intensified with a focus on professionalism and adaptability to evolving global conditions./.

VNA

See more

Building a transparent civil service environment - A key foundation for maintaining discipline and combatting corruption (Photo: VNA)

Strengthened inspection, supervision needed in areas prone to corruption

The goal of this plan is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of thematic inspections; prevent and swiftly address corruption and misconduct; reinforce the accountability of agencies and individuals involved in handling criminal information; and foster greater cooperation among relevant bodies, thus contributing to upholding discipline and the rule of law.

The story about Vietnam on Thailand's The Nation newspaper on December 28. (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam positions itself as a key Southeast Asian economic hub: Thai newspaper

According to the article titled “Vietnam positions itself as a key Southeast Asian economic hub,” Vietnam is currently among the fastest-growing economies in the ASEAN. Citing data from the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Vietnam, it said Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded strong quarterly growth in 2025, rising by 6.93% in the first quarter, 7.7% in the second quarter and 8.23% in the third quarter - far outpacing many regional economies.

Visitors at a trade fair in Hanoi in November. (Photo: VNA)

Vietrade warns of scams related to National Fair – Spring 2026

According to Vietrade, in recent days a number of individuals and organisations have been disseminating unverified and misleading information on social media platforms, online groups and other communication channels. These entities have impersonated the Spring Fair 2026 organising board or falsely claimed to be authorised agents or representatives working with the organisers, in order to solicit registrations from organisations and enterprises via unofficial links for the purpose of illicit gain.

At present, all fishing vessels in Hai Phong have been registered and licensed for operation, with their data cleaned and cross-checked on VNeID, updated in the national fisheries management software system VNFishbase, and equipped with vessel monitoring system devices. (Photo: VNA)

Hai Phong records positive progress in combating IUU fishing

According to the Hai Phong municipal Department of Agriculture and Environment, the city currently has 788 fishing vessels. All vessels have been fully registered and licensed, with their data verified on VNeID and updated on the national fisheries management system VNFishbase. They have also been equipped with vessel monitoring system (VMS) devices, ensuring that no fishing vessels operating in the city fall short of regulatory requirements.

Freezing tra fish fillet products for export at a factory of the Sao Mai Group. (Photo: VNA)

Tra fish exports forecast to near 2.2 billion USD

Tra fish output in 2025 is estimated at around 1.67 million tonnes. To date, the sector has contributed approximately 2.1 billion USD to Vietnam’s total agro-forestry-fisheries export earnings.

Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Pham Thanh Ha speaks at a press conference on banking sector performance in 2025 and tasks for 2026, held in Hanoi on December 29. (Photo: VNA)

Credit growth nears 18% in 2025: central bank

At a press conference on banking sector performance in 2025 and tasks for 2026, held in Hanoi on December 29, SBV Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha said that as of December 24, 2025, total outstanding credit to the economy exceeded 18.4 quadrillion VND (about 670 billion USD), up 17.87% compared to the end of 2024.

Workers in the Du Long Industrial Park, Khanh Hoa province. (Photo: VNA)

Key economic policies taking effect in January 2026

A wide range of new economic policies and legal provisions will come into force in January 2026, covering taxation, advertising, land use, minimum wages, public finance, railways, technology transfer and statistics, among others.

From 4 billion USD in 2015, the size of the e-commerce market increases eightfold to reach 32 billion USD last year. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi leads 2025 Vietnam eBusiness Index

​The average score of the rankings is 9.3 points. The gap in e-commerce development between the two major economic centres–Hanoi and HCM City–and the remaining provinces and cities is very large.

An aircraft of Vietnam Airlines - Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam Airlines adds 270 flights to during 2026 New Year holiday

Vietnam Airlines said the swift deployment of additional flights during the New Year holiday demonstrates the carrier’s proactive approach and readiness in mobilising resources to serve passengers during peak travel periods at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh (second from right) conducts an aerial inspection of the Ca Mau–Dat Mui expressway, the road leading to Hon Khoai, and the dual-use Hon Khoai port from a helicopter. (Photo: VNA)

PM urges faster progress on key infrastructure projects in Dat Mui, Ca Mau

During an aerial survey of Dat Mui commune, home to the five islands of Hon Khoai, Hon Sao, Hon Go, Hon Doi Moi and Hon Da Le, the Prime Minister underscored the area’s strategic importance for national defence, economic development and connectivity across the province, the Mekong Delta and the wider southern region.

Dao Ngoc Tien, Vice Rector of Foreign Trade University, speaks at the event. (Photo: doanhnghiepvn.vn)

High standards key for businesses to unlock VEFTA benefits

The EFTA bloc, comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, has a relatively small population but a combined GDP of about 1.3 trillion EUR (1.5 trillion USD), high living standards, and strong demand for high-quality products.

Workers make products for the Lunar New Year (Tet) in Hanoi's Bat Trang commune. (Photo: hanoimoi.vn)

Hanoi craft villages bustle as Lunar New Year approaches

Hanoi is home to the largest number of craft villages nationwide, with about 1,350 villages and craft-based communities, accounting for roughly 56% of rural villages in the capital. Of these, 318 are officially recognised as traditional craft villages.