Bangkok (VNA) - Thailand’s Finance Ministry has revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 2.2% from 2.4%, while issuing a cautious outlook for 2026, citing weak manufacturing output and domestic political uncertainties.
Vinit Visessuvanapoom, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) and the ministry’s spokesperson, said the country’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 came in at 1.2%, weaker than expected, pulling down the full-year average. The slowdown was attributed to weaker manufacturing output due to refinery maintenance shutdowns.
The ministry expects growth to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 1.8%, supported by government stimulus measures.
For 2026, the ministry forecasts GDP growth in the range of 1.5–2.5%. Key growth drivers include a rebound in tourism, a 2.5% rise in private consumption, and a 3.2% growth in private investment. Exports are expected to cool from the previous year but remain resilient, with merchandise export value forecast to edge up by 1%, reflecting slower global trade volumes and a high base in 2025. Meanwhile, imports are predicted to rise by 3.9%.
A major challenge identified by the ministry is a 1.7% decline in public investment, affected by political transition, which could delay the enactment of the fiscal year 2027 annual budget bill by around three months. The ministry said the government should expedite the process and may consider measures to speed up disbursements to mitigate the impact.
The ministry said it will prioritise maintaining sustainable fiscal stability by improving revenue collection efficiency, bringing more of the informal economy into the formal system to broaden the tax base, and maximising value-for-money in public spending to preserve fiscal space for future shocks./.
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