Bangkok (VNA) - The Thai baht (THB) began 2026 on a stronger note, supportey a rise in global gold prices and signs of foreign inflows as the US dollar weakened.
The baht ended 2025 with a rapid appreciation, marking a new five-year high after a volatile year, finishing at 31.02 per US dollar. Over the full year, it strengthened 9.42% from around 34 at the start of the year, helped by a softer dollar, foreign-currency selling by the gold trade after gold prices surged, and foreign inflows into Thai bonds.
According to Kanjana Chokpaisalsilp, an executive in the research team at Kasikorn Research Centre, the bath strengthened in line with rising gold prices and by foreign fund-flow momentum. As of January 6, foreign investors recorded net purchases of Thai shares and bonds of 2,371.54 million THB (76 million USD) and 929 million THB (29.77 million USD) respectively.
She said the baht also moved in line with most Asian currencies, while the dollar softened alongside lower US bond yields after the US ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.9 in December, its lowest since October 2024, below market expectations of 48.4 and down from 48.2 in last November.
Key factors to watch, she said, include foreign fund flows, moves in Asian currencies and global gold prices, signals on US rates from FED officials’ remarks, and December services PMI readings for the euro zone, the UK and the US.
Poon Panichpibool, a strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, said the bath has strengthened more than expected. However, he said the pace of appreciation could slow in the near term as markets await key US labour-market data, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate.
Roong Sanguanruang, a senior director in global markets planning at Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), said the baht could strengthen through the 31-per-USD level, though she expects any break to be temporary. She said the baht’s direction still hinges on global gold prices, while other flows have thinned around the year-end period, meaning low liquidity could amplify moves.
For 2026, she put the baht in a range of 30.80–33.00 per US dollar, supported by potential Fed rate cuts and Thailand’s current account surplus. Headwinds include Thailand’s low growth outlook and the risk of a gold pullback if US labour data comes in stronger than expected./.
