HCM City (VNA) – After months of double-digit growth, Vietnam’s aquatic exports hit a snag in June, signaling a tougher road ahead, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
Exports last month inched up just 4% from a year earlier to 876 million USD, a steep drop from May’s 20% surge, marking the weakest monthly gain in the first half, VASEP data showed.
For the January–June period, aquatic exports climbed 19% to 5.2 billion USD, fuelled by robust demand from China, Japan, the Republic of Korea (RoK), and ASEAN, where growth ranged from 15–28%. But the European Union (EU) market stalled, with shipments dipping 1%, while Middle East exports slumped 16% amid regional turmoil. Israel, a key buyer of canned tuna, saw imports collapse by over 50%.
Shipments to the US still rose 16% to 891 million USD during the six months. However, many enterprises have suspended exports to this market since June to avoid high tariff risks.
Tuna took the hardest hit, with June exports plunging 31% year-on-year, driven by impacts of the US tariffs. First-half tuna exports fell nearly 2%. Shrimp and tra fish, Vietnam’s key foreign currency earners, also faced US tariff pressures. Shrimp exports rose 26% to 2.07 billion USD, while tra fish grew 10% to 1 billion USD by June’s end.
VASEP Deputy Secretary-General Le Hang cautioned that US tariff policies, particularly on shrimp and tra fish, will shape the industry’s trajectory in the second half. Shrimp faces potential overlapping duties, including reciprocal, anti-dumping, and anti-subsidy ones.
However, a recent US Department of Commerce’s ruling offered some relief, granting seven Vietnamese tra fish exporters a 0% anti-dumping duty in its 20th review.
If the US imposes a 10% reciprocal duty after July 9, Vietnam’s aquatic exports could fall to 9.5 billion USD for 2025, down 500 million USD from earlier forecasts, Hang warned. Other markets like China, ASEAN, Japan, and the EU may partly cushion the blow, but their capacity is limited as global consumption has yet to fully recover.
A worst-case scenario with US tariffs exceeding 10%, potentially hitting 46%, could push exports below 9 billion USD, pitting Vietnam against low-tariff rivals like Ecuador, India, Thailand, and Indonesia.
Geopolitical risks add to the strain. Middle East tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, threaten a market where Vietnam’s exports doubled from 198 million USD in 2020 to 366 million USD in 2024. Further growth now hangs in the balance.
Still, opportunities beckon. Market analyst Kim Thu urged firms to target emerging Muslim markets like Jordan, Libya, and Pakistan, while leveraging free trade pacts with Japan, the EU, and ASEAN.
She also recommended investments in Halal certification and value-added products like canned tuna, peeled shrimp, and frozen tra fish portions, eyeing demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
To weather the storm, industry experts called for government-backed measures, including preferential credit, real-time market data, and stronger trade promotion in alternative markets amid geopolitical uncertainties./.
