Hanoi (VNA) – The challenges ahead demand strong efforts and determination from both government authorities and the business community to maintain macroeconomic stability and pave the way for sustainable growth in the coming quarters.
In the near future, Vietnam’s economy will face a complex mix of challenges, ranging from the effects of the United States' retaliatory tariff policy to domestic inflationary pressures. This calls for a flexible and effective response.
To provide more insights, VietnamPlus spoke with Nguyen Thu Oanh, Head of the Service and Price Department under the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance.
Key Industries Under Pressure
- What challenges is the US "retaliatory tariff on all countries" policy creating for Vietnam’s exports, especially considering the US is our largest export market?
Nguyen Thu Oanh: This policy indeed poses a major challenge. If the US imposes a 46% retaliatory tariff on Vietnamese goods, the impact would spread across several key industries. According to 2024 statistics, six groups of goods — including computers, electronics and components; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts; phones and components; textiles; footwear; and wood products — account for more than 74% of Vietnam’s total exports to the US.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises play a dominant role in exporting electronics, machinery, and phones. As a result, reciprocal tariffs could drive them to shift production to other countries, directly impacting Vietnam’s export turnover.
Meanwhile, sectors such as textiles, footwear, and wood products — where domestic companies have a stronger presence — could see their competitiveness eroded by higher tariffs. Finding alternative markets could become harder, leading to a risk of declining orders and reduced export volumes.
Furthermore, if the US imposes high tariffs on all countries, it could fuel global inflation, dampen consumer demand, and indirectly hurt Vietnam’s export prospects.
- What solutions should Vietnam implement to minimize the negative impacts of this tariff policy?
Nguyen Thu Oanh: We need a proactive and comprehensive strategy to respond to this situation.
First, strengthen bilateral dialogue with the US to emphasize mutual trade benefits and affirm Vietnam as a fair and reliable partner.
Second, continue actively working to balance the trade relationship through various channels and measures.
Third, address concerns from the US regarding trade practices that they perceive as protectionist or unfair.
Fourth, diversify export markets and improve product quality to reduce dependence on the US market.
Finally, government agencies must promptly and transparently provide businesses with information on tariff policies, enabling them to prepare documentation and strategies to protect their interests in the US market. Authorities should also roll out concrete support measures to help manufacturers and exporters weather the tariff impacts.
Ensuring Smooth Domestic Market Operations
- The National Assembly has raised the inflation ceiling to 4.5–5% to support the target of 8% economic growth, while the Government aims to keep inflation at 4.15%. In the context of persistently high pork prices and rising fees on e-commerce platforms, what measures are needed to achieve these goals?
Nguyen Thu Oanh: This is certainly no easy task and requires close, coordinated efforts across all levels.
First, the Government, ministries, and local authorities must closely monitor global price and inflation trends to promptly identify risks and implement appropriate measures, ensuring domestic supply and price stability.
In addition, it’s crucial to ensure smooth supply, circulation, and distribution of goods and services, especially strategic commodities that could be affected by global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
Monitoring the prices of essential goods — including food, pork, fuel, and gas — is particularly important. Timely and appropriate interventions should be prepared for holidays and festive seasons to avoid sudden price spikes. Authorities must also strengthen price control and enforcement, strictly penalizing any violations or misinformation that could destabilize the market.
Furthermore, any adjustments to state-managed service prices must be carefully timed and calculated to avoid triggering cost-push inflation or inflationary expectations.
In financial markets, regulatory agencies should flexibly and consistently manage monetary policy tools to control inflation within target levels, while also supporting production, business activities, and people’s livelihoods.
Lastly, enhancing information dissemination is vital. Providing timely, transparent updates will foster public trust in the Government’s price management policies, helping stabilize consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
- Thank you very much!
