Ho Chi Minh City (VNA) - After strong growth in the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s economy is forecast to face greater pressure in the months ahead as rising inflation, exchange-rate and interest-rate pressures test its ability to sustain growth and maintain macroeconomic stability.
In a recently released report, Vu Binh Minh, CFA, Associate Director, FX Trading, Markets and Securities Services at HSBC Vietnam, said Vietnam’s economy has built a relatively favourable position in the first six months of the year with GDP expanding 8.18% – the highest first-half growth rate in recent years – as key growth drivers have operated in tandem.
Industrial production, exports, domestic consumption and public investment continued to serve as key pillars, while foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows maintained positive momentum.
Notably, registered FDI reached 34.65 billion USD in the reviewed period, up 61% year-on-year, while disbursed capital totaled 13.03 billion USD, the highest level in five years.
Foreign investors’ capital contributions and share purchases rose by nearly 90%, reflecting confidence in Vietnam’s medium- and long-term prospects and the deepening shift in global supply chains.
However, the rapid pace of growth has also made macroeconomic balances more sensitive. When policy buffers are not as ample as before, policymakers are likely to face greater pressure in the second half as many variables come into play at the same time, the report said.
One of the key indicators to watch is the trade balance. Vietnam recorded a goods trade deficit of around 16.65 billion USD in the Jan – June period, reversing from a surplus in the same period last year.
According to the expert, most of the rise in imports was concentrated on machinery, equipment and raw materials - categories that support investment and production. In that sense, the current deficit appears to be more about preparing productive capacity for the next phase and is somewhat different in nature from a consumption-driven deficit.
In an economy where production still depends heavily on imported inputs, when imports rise faster than exports, pressure on the external balance and the exchange rate may emerge sooner, the report noted.
Inflation is another variable requiring close monitoring. The average CPI in the first half rose by 4.38%, fairly close to the roughly 4.5% target set by the National Assembly.
HSBC said inflation has been accelerating, especially in the final two months of the second quarter against a backdrop of sharply higher energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions, persistently elevated imported input costs, and some spillover to food prices from global price moves.
The positive point is that six-month core inflation rose 4.12%, still below headline CPI, suggesting price pressures have not yet broadened into a widespread spiral. Even so, the risk of inflation remains something to watch, especially domestic demand is also recovering more strongly.
The exchange rate and interest rates remain key variables for policymakers, with rising foreign-currency demand putting pressure on the Vietnamese dong from late in the first quarter. Proactive measures by the State Bank of Vietnam helped stabilise foreign-currency supply, liquidity and market expectations. At the same time, high interbank and deposit rates reflected strong credit demand, slower deposit mobilisation and the need to maintain a reasonable VND/USD interest-rate differential to support exchange-rate stability.
These developments are a relatively natural consequence of a rapidly growing economy with limited room for further monetary policy easing, and will be among the key factors shaping economic management in the second half.
However, the outlook for the second half is not without positive factors. Seasonal trends could provide additional support towards year-end as exports enter their peak delivery season, tourism and remittance inflows typically improve, and domestic supply conditions may better support price stability.
Another notable driver is the planned upgrading of Vietnam’s stock market. Minh said if the process remains on track in the coming months, its impact would go beyond improving market sentiment to broadening the investor pool able to access Vietnam, improve liquidity, enhance the quality of capital inflows, and strengthen the standing of Vietnamese assets in the global market.
Over the medium and long term, more stable foreign capital inflows could also help generate a more durable supply of foreign currency, potentially easing exchange-rate pressures and creating additional room for policy management, he added.
According to the expert, strong first-half growth has created a favourable foundation for the whole of 2026. However, performance in the remaining months will depend increasingly on the ability to balance growth with macroeconomic stability. Public investment, high-quality FDI and the stock market upgrading process are expected to serve as structural drivers, helping strengthen the foundation for sustainable economic growth./.
