Hanoi (VNA) – HSBC Global Investment Research believes Vietnam is well positioned to emerge as Asia’s fastest-growing economy, having successfully navigated global tariff headwinds while strengthening its trade, investment and domestic growth foundations.
In its report, Vietnam at a Glance, released on January 13, HSBC forecasts Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by as much as 8% in 2025, potentially the highest growth rate in Asia. Growth is expected to moderate to 6.7% in 2026, supported by expanding trade market share and sustained investment momentum.
According to HSBC economists, 2025 was a highly volatile year, marked by heightened global trade tensions. When the so-called “Liberation Day” tariff announcements were first made in April, Vietnam was considered among the Asian economies most exposed to tariff risks, second only to China. However, Vietnam since demonstrated notable economic resilience, with GDP growth reaching an estimated 8% for the full year — the second-highest annual expansion in the past 15 years.
Despite repeated tariff-related shocks, Vietnam’s trade continued to grow, reaching a record 928 billion USD in 2025, up 18% year-on-year. While part of this surge reflected front-loading of export orders, HSBC noted that this factor alone does not fully explain Vietnam’s strong performance.
Although the impact of order front-loading to the US market has gradually faded, Vietnam’s exports have continued to outperform regional peers, rising about 30% year-on-year on a three-month moving average basis. HSBC attributed this not only to timing, but also to Vietnam’s increasingly appropriate export mix.
HSBC analysts pointed to the global artificial intelligence boom as a key driver of trade resilience. Escalating US–China competition in semiconductors has reshaped global supply chains, boosting demand for AI-related chips and electronics. This has created favorable conditions for electronics exports as a way to mitigate tariff pressures.
Vietnam is well positioned to benefit from this trend. Electronics now account for around 35% of the country’s total exports, up sharply from just 5% in 2010. Meanwhile, the share of traditional exports such as textiles and footwear has fallen from a peak of about 30% in 2005 to just over 10% today, reflecting Vietnam’s gradual move up the global value chain.
Vietnam has also continued to gain market share in the US. In 2025, its exports to the US rose nearly 30% year-on-year, according to Nikkei, despite tariff concerns. Even with a reciprocal tariff rate of 20%, Vietnam expanded its US market share in products such as mobile phones, garments and footwear.
HSBC also challenged simplistic views about rising ASEAN imports from China. The key issue, it argued, is not import volumes alone, but whether countries can convert cheaper imported inputs into higher exports and capture demand in end markets such as the US. Vietnam stands out as a successful “China+1” case, with its trade deficit with China widening to 116 billion USD, while its surplus with the rest of the world rose to 136 billion USD, resulting in a net surplus of about 20 billion USD.
On investment, HSBC noted that newly registered foreign direct investment (FDI) fell 12% year-on-year in 2025, though levels remained high by historical standards. The decline was largely driven by weaker inflows from South Korea, while investment from China rose sharply, accounting for about 30% of total FDI and overtaking Singapore.
Domestic demand has also remained a key growth pillar. Private consumption rose around 8%, supported by an expanding consumer class, while investment accelerated to nearly 9%, underpinned by continued infrastructure development. Tourism also rebounded strongly, with more than 21 million international arrivals generating about 40 billion USD in revenue, equivalent to 7% of GDP.
Inflation remained under control, averaging 3.3% in 2025. HSBC forecasts inflation at around 3.5% in 2026, alongside GDP growth of 6.7%, while cautioning that tariff-related risks could still weigh on Vietnam’s trade outlook in the period ahead./.
