Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam is targeting export growth of more than 8% and a trade surplus of about 25 billion USD in 2026, setting a challenging goal as the country seeks to expand on an export base of roughly 470 billion USD in 2025.
Ambitious 2026 target
Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s Export-Import Department, said export growth has averaged around 10% annually, placing Vietnam among the world’s top 20 exporting economies since 2023.
Vietnam has also maintained a trade surplus for 10 straight years from 2016 - 2025, providing a stable source of foreign currency, easing exchange rate pressure, and bolstering foreign exchange reserves - an important factor for a highly open economy.
Despite strong performance, structural risks remain. Export markets have diversified but still rely heavily on key regions, with Northeast Asia, the US, ASEAN, and the European Union accounting for nearly 80% of total exports, leaving Vietnam vulnerable to demand or policy shifts in those markets.
Major agricultural exports such as coffee, pepper, shrimp, and pangasius catfish generate substantial revenue but are largely traded outside commodity exchanges, thereby restricting firms’ ability to hedge price volatility and secure long-term contracts. Meanwhile, the utilisation rate of preferential tariffs under free trade agreements hovers at just 31%, signaling ample untapped potential.
Tran Viet Hoa, Director General of the MIT’s Industry Department, described the 2026 target as ambitious, given narrowing market opportunities, warning that traditional growth engines will no longer suffice, and breakthrough measures are required
Nguyen Thao Hien, Deputy Director General of the Overseas Market Development Department, pointed to persistent global trade volatility and rising barriers. Export growth continues to rely heavily on foreign-invested enterprises, while domestic firms remain stuck in low-value segments. Heavy dependence on imported inputs across many industries further heightens exposure to external shocks
Three pillars for next phase
To meet its targets, the MoIT has focused on strengthening domestic capacity, expanding market reach, and cutting costs and risks. It aims to restructure industry toward higher-value-added production, slash raw material exports, boost hi-tech manufacturing, increase local supply chain autonomy, and develop supporting industries.
Raising localisation rates is seen as critical to reducing reliance on imported components and increasing the “Made in Vietnam” value in export products.
For 2026, market strategy will focus on fully exploiting existing free trade agreements, penetrating recovering and niche markets, and negotiating new bilateral and multilateral deals, Hoa said.
Particular focus will fall on trade defence. Chu Thang Trung, Deputy Director General of the MoIT’s Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam, said tighter coordination will be needed to combat illegal transshipment, origin fraud, and trade remedy cases.
With logistics costs still high, the MoIT is fast-tracking the national logistics strategy for 2025–2035 to lower transport and warehousing costs and sharpen competitiveness.
Bui Nguyen Anh Tuan, Deputy Director General of the Domestic Market Management and Development Department, said many localities are planning global, regional, and national logistics hubs. These could improve goods circulation if backed by an appropriate legal framework.
Cross-border e-commerce is gaining traction as a new growth driver. Online exports hit 1.7 billion USD in 2024, of a total cross-border e-commerce trade volume of 4.1 billion USD. Vietnamese goods are gaining ground on global platforms. However, small and medium-sized firms still struggle with limited resources, market knowledge, and high logistics costs. The ministry plans to expand its “Go Global” programme to help them integrate more deeply into global value chains.
Additional measures include developing free trade zones, establishing a commodity derivatives market, and updating the Commercial Law up to international standards, he added./.
