Hanoi (VNA) – Looking back at 2025 and ahead to 2026, experts say organisations need to strengthen their risk governance capabilities to cope with global volatility, with three key pillars emerging as priorities.
Experts from HSBC Vietnam, Vietcombank and BIDV highlighted three major risk management issues for 2026: counterparty risk amid global instability, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the role of governance and corporate culture.
Rising risks in a volatile business environment
According to Douglas Matheson, a senior manager for credit risk management and compliance at HSBC Vietnam, although the local economy recorded growth of around 8% in 2025, businesses continued to operate in a highly challenging environment. One notable factor was uncertainty surrounding trade and tariff policies.
Another significant development last year was the return of exchange rate volatility. Matheson noted that periods of US dollar appreciation against the Vietnamese dong directly affected import costs as well as companies’ cash-flow projections.
At the same time, fluctuations among regional currencies made cross-border business planning increasingly complex. In an uncertain environment, market sentiment also shifted rapidly, reflected in sharp rises in the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
According to Matheson, this demonstrates that businesses and financial institutions can become vulnerable if they lack appropriate risk mitigation measures.
The HSBC expert said the key lesson from 2025 was not the ability to predict every disruption accurately, but rather the capacity to identify risks early and build governance frameworks flexible enough to respond effectively. When information is incomplete, organisations must be able to test assumptions and make swift decisions to limit potential impacts.
Technology risks becoming more prominent
Alongside economic and geopolitical factors, technology-related risks are becoming an increasing concern for organisations.
Tong Tran Hieu, head of integrated risk management at Vietcombank, said that as digital transformation accelerates, risks linked to cyber security and artificial intelligence (AI) are growing rapidly.
AI offers significant opportunities to improve customer experience and optimise operations. However, as the adoption of technology becomes more widespread, organisations need suitable governance frameworks to manage associated risks effectively.
From the perspective of a financial institution, Tran Phuong, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of BIDV, said there were two major lessons from risk management in 2025.
First, early warning systems only have real value when tied to concrete actions. Second, organisations need to understand the interrelationship between different types of risks. In banking, periods of stress rarely arise from the breach of a single indicator alone.
Sustainable profitability requires a broader perspective that takes into account both the pace and structure of growth. Such an approach strengthens resilience over the medium and long term, rather than focusing solely on short-term profits.
Three pillars for risk management in 2026
These risks are expected to persist into 2026. Matheson noted that developments in March demonstrated how quickly global volatility could spread to Vietnam.
According to him, vision, connectivity and decisive action will distinguish organisations that merely react to uncertainty from those capable of proactively navigating an increasingly volatile business environment.
Meanwhile, Tran Phuong stressed that businesses this year would need to place particular emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of risk governance.
He said organisations should proactively monitor emerging trends rather than focus solely on known risks. Amid geopolitical instability and the restructuring of global supply chains, businesses need to maintain the ability to observe and adapt in order to identify both challenges and opportunities./.
