Hanoi (VNA) – The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast that the Philippines will import around 5.7 million metric tonnes (MT) of rice in 2026 to offset declining domestic supply, as rice production comes under pressure from rising input costs, shrinking planting areas and the risk of water shortages.
In its latest Grain and Feed Update, the USDA raised its rice import forecast for the Philippines by 100,000 MT from an earlier estimate of 5.6 million MT.
Rice imports are projected to increase to supplement lower domestic supply while ending stocks are forecast to decline due to lower production, the US agency said.
The USDA estimates are higher than the 4.8 million MT in rice imports that the Department of Agriculture (DA) of the Philippines earlier projected.
The country imported 2.42 million MT of rice from January to June 11, according to government data.
The Philippines' total milled rice production is forecast to reach 12.3 million MT this year, a 0.8% downgrade from the earlier 12.4 million MT production outlook, as rising input costs weigh on farmers’ planting intentions.
Fertilizer prices have surged since March, with global urea prices sharply increasing by more than 55%, reducing farmers’ income and limiting their incentives to expand rice-planting areas, the USDA noted.
The USDA said despite the DA providing fuel subsidies and partial seed and fertilizer support to farmers, industry sources noted that these measures only partially offset the burden of elevated input costs.
Compounding rising input costs and lower farming intentions, significantly lower water levels in key dams could pose additional risk to local rice production in lowland areas, the USDA said, noting that the lack of sufficient rainfall substantially reduced water levels in major dam reservoirs critical to irrigating rice and corn-producing regions.
The DA said earlier that rice production could decline by 700,000 MT in the event of a severe El Niño.
The Philippines’ weather bureau reported that the country may experience a moderate to strong El Niño by the latter part of the year until early-2027. The weather phenomenon was last recorded in 2024, when a significant portion of farm production was affected due to prolonged dry spells./.
El Niño, Middle East conflict threaten Philippine rice output
The Philippine agriculture sector estimates El Niño could cut the country’s rice output by up to 4 million tonnes this year. The Department of Agriculture has lowered its production forecast for 2026 from 20.28 million tonnes to 19.87 million tonnes.
