Trade outlook 2026: leveraging momentum and ‘golden window’ for breakthrough

Vietnam’s seafood exports remain concentrated in key markets such as the US, EU, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Beyond traditional markets, VASEP has proposed expanding trade promotion to emerging destinations such as Brazil, South America and South Asia to reduce reliance on a handful of major partners.

Vietnam targets export turnover growth of 15–16% in 2026 compared to 2025, aiming for around 500 billion USD, equivalent to monthly exports of 45–46 billion USD. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
Vietnam targets export turnover growth of 15–16% in 2026 compared to 2025, aiming for around 500 billion USD, equivalent to monthly exports of 45–46 billion USD. (Photo: VietnamPlus)

Hanoi (VNA) - Rising orders and a temporary cut in US import tariffs to 10% are expected to boost exports, but amid geopolitical volatility and tightening green barriers in major markets, securing raw materials and maximising free trade agreements (FTAs) are critical for sustained growth.

Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, Vice Chairwoman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association (LEFASO), said current tensions in the Middle East have had limited impact on footwear exports so far, as most orders for the first quarter of 2026 were signed earlier and have yet to reach delivery deadlines.

Businesses expect logistics conditions to stabilise within the next one to two months, easing pressure on supply chains, she added. Over the longer term, she stressed the need to enhance domestic sourcing of materials to improve the sector’s resilience to global shocks.

Developing specialised industrial parks for textiles and footwear is seen as a key solution, while growing green consumption trends in the EU are pushing firms to invest in environmentally friendly technologies to remain embedded in global supply chains.

Truong Van Cam, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), noted that stricter rules of origin under many free trade agreements mean companies unable to secure local materials will struggle to benefit from tariff preferences.

Meanwhile, Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said market diversification is becoming a strategic imperative for the seafood sector amid continued global trade uncertainty.

Vietnam’s seafood exports remain concentrated in key markets such as the US, EU, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Beyond traditional markets, VASEP has proposed expanding trade promotion to emerging destinations such as Brazil, South America and South Asia to reduce reliance on a handful of major partners.

Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said Vietnam’s trade performance in the first two months of 2026 showed encouraging signs, laying a solid foundation for achieving double-digit export growth this year.

Export turnover reached 76.39 billion USD in the period, up 18.3% year-on-year, exceeding the Government’s full-year growth target. Vietnam, however, recorded a trade deficit of nearly 3 billion USD, which Son said was not a concern as imports were largely driven by machinery, equipment and production inputs.

Tran Ngoc Quan, Vietnam’s Trade Counsellor in Belgium and the EU, said the bloc is actively negotiating and signing FTAs with major partners such as India and Indonesia, while deepening cooperation with Canada and ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, to build more resilient supply chains.

Vietnam currently enjoys a notable advantage in the EU market thanks to the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement. After six years of implementation, the agreement has eliminated tariffs on more than 80% of Vietnamese goods, enhancing their competitiveness. Quan said Vietnam has a lead of around three to five years over countries without FTAs with the EU, making this a crucial window to expand market share in Europe.

He urged Vietnam to capitalise on this “golden window” under the EVFTA by stepping up trade promotion. Ministries, industry groups and businesses should invest more in product branding, while strengthening ties with European partners to stay abreast of evolving regulations and standards./.

VNA

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