Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s tourism sector has developed growth scenarios for 2026 and the 2026-2031 period as it seeks to sustain momentum despite mounting global uncertainty, according to Director of the Vietnam National Authority of Tourism (VNAT) Nguyen Trung Khanh.
The industry recorded its strongest-ever first-quarter performance, welcoming more than 6.7 million international visitors, up 12.4% year-on-year, while domestic tourism reached an estimated 37 million trips. Total tourism revenue was estimated at 267 trillion VND (over 10 billion USD).
However, Khanh noted that the sector continues to face external headwinds. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised fuel prices, increasing air transport and tourism costs. Although indirect, these developments have affected consumer confidence, travel spending, and tourism business.
According to VNAT, shifting global travel trends present both opportunities and challenges. International tourists are increasingly favouring destinations that are safe, affordable, and closer to home, creating opportunities for Vietnam to attract more visitors from nearby markets and strengthen its image as a friendly and attractive destination.
At the same time, the sector faces rising airfares, disruptions to international flight routes, tighter global spending patterns, and intensifying competition from regional rivals, particularly in visa policies, tourism promotion, and demand-stimulation programmes.
Based on these factors, VNAT has developed two growth scenarios for 2026.
Under the optimistic scenario, assuming global conditions stabilise and support measures prove effective, Vietnam aims to achieve the Government’s target of welcoming 25 million international visitors, serving 150 million domestic tourists, and generating tourism revenue of 1.13 quadrillion VND.
VNAT projects that international arrivals will reach approximately 5.6 million in both the second and third quarters and 7 million in the fourth quarter. Domestic tourism is forecast at 44 million trips in the second quarter, 45 million in the third, and 24 million in the final quarter.
Under a more conservative scenario, prolonged geopolitical conflicts, global economic slowdown or natural disasters and disease outbreaks could reduce international arrivals to around 22.5 million and domestic visitors to 130 million.
Looking further ahead, VNAT has prepared three growth scenarios for the 2026-2031 period.
The cautious scenario targets annual international visitor growth of 8-10%, reaching 35-38 million arrivals by 2030. The baseline scenario envisages annual growth of 12-15%, with international arrivals climbing to 40-45 million. Under the high-growth scenario, supported by breakthroughs in visa policy, aviation connectivity and digital transformation, international arrivals could expand by 15-18% annually, reaching 45-50 million by the end of the decade.
To realise these targets, Khanh said the tourism sector will implement a comprehensive set of short-, medium- and long-term measures.
In the near term, priorities include implementing the Politburo’s Resolution No. 08 on developing tourism into a spearhead economic sector, accelerating revisions to the 2017 Tourism Law and related regulations, and finalising a new tourism development scheme for the coming period.
The sector will also review and adjust the Vietnam Tourism Development Strategy to 2030 in line with post-pandemic realities, strengthen branding, diversify source markets and accelerate digital transformation, particularly through the development of a tourism digital data ecosystem in line with the spirit of the Politburo’s Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW on science, technology, innovation and digital transformation.
In the medium and long term, efforts will focus on improving institutions, developing infrastructure, strengthening tourism product linkages, promoting green and digital transitions, and enhancing the competitiveness of tourism enterprises.
According to Khanh, Vietnam currently has more than 4,000 international travel companies, but over 90% are small and micro-sized enterprises, highlighting the need for larger firms capable of competing globally.
Restructuring system, renewing mindset
Addressing the sector’s future growth strategy, Deputy Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism Ho An Phong called for a restructuring of tourism products towards higher-quality segments.
He urged greater emphasis on four- and five-star accommodation, premium resort tourism, high-quality entertainment services, specialised tourism transport and value-added services.
According to the deputy minister, creating high-value tourism products from existing resources would not only improve economic efficiency but also reduce pressure on infrastructure and the environment, supporting sustainable development.
A key priority, he said, is the development of a new statistical framework capable of fully measuring tourism’s contribution to the economy. This should capture not only accommodation revenue but also spillover effects on aviation, transport, telecommunications, finance, retail, real estate, food services and related sectors.
On market development, Phong stressed the importance of maintaining a diversified international market strategy while continuing to view domestic tourism as a major driver of consumption and local economic activity.
He noted that Vietnam has gradually expanded its reach into promising markets such as South America, South Asia and other emerging destinations. India continues to record rapid growth, Russia is recovering strongly, while Northeast Asia – particularly China, the Republic of Korea, Japan and Taiwan (China) – remains the backbone of Vietnam’s international tourism market.
The deputy minister also highlighted the positive impact of Vietnam’s more open and flexible visa policies, describing them as a key lever for market expansion. He stressed that any further visa liberalisation proposals should be carefully prepared, with detailed assessments of specific markets and visa categories to ensure effectiveness./.
