Hanoi (VNA) – The 2026 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) highlights Vietnam’s strong resilience to regional and global volatility, noting its rapid integration into global supply chains and its emergence as a leading destination for foreign direct investment (FDI).
AMRO forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.4% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027, easing slightly from an estimated 8% in 2025. Inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is expected to average 3.8% in 2026 before moderating to 3.4% in 2027.
The report highlights that Vietnam continues to benefit from strong domestic demand, robust export performance and sustained foreign investment inflows, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and electronics.
Across the broader ASEAN+3 region, which covers 11 ASEAN member states and China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, growth is projected at 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027, following stronger-than-expected expansion of 4.3% in 2025. Inflation is forecast to rise modestly from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
AMRO said the region entered 2026 from a position of strength, supported by resilient domestic demand, firm exports and improved external buffers.
However, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have increased downside risks by pushing up global energy prices and disrupting supply chains.
Within ASEAN, growth is expected to remain relatively robust at 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, with inflation rising to 3.1% in 2026 before easing slightly. China, the region’s largest economy, is forecast to grow 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, with inflation remaining subdued at below 1%.
AMRO noted that the impact of the Middle East conflict will depend on its duration. A prolonged shock could spill over from energy markets to industrial inputs, logistics, food prices and tourism, affecting economies unevenly depending on their exposure and policy space.
Despite these risks, the report underscores a structural shift in the region towards stronger intra-regional trade and demand. The region has emerged as the world’s largest market, accounting for 28% of global final demand.
“The long-standing view of the region as the world’s factory is increasingly outdated,” said AMRO Chief Economist Dong He, noting that economies are now driven more by regional consumption and production linkages.
The share of ASEAN+3’s value-added exports to the US has fallen from around one-third to 20%, while the proportion retained within the region has increased to nearly 30%, reflecting a shift towards stronger intra-regional demand.
He urged policymakers to preserve flexibility to respond to shocks, maintain financial stability and provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups, while avoiding broad stimulus measures that could fuel inflation.
He added that sustaining growth will depend on deepening regional cooperation, maintaining open trade and investment flows and accelerating the transition towards greener energy systems./.
