Vietnam’s economic growth projected to rebound from 2024

Vietnam’s economic growth projected to rebound from 2024 - Illustrative image (Photo: baodautu.vn)

Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s economic growth is likelyto rebound in 2024 and 2025, according to Dorsati Madani, Senior Economistat the World Bank (WB).

Madani noted that Vietnam's major trading partners,including the US, Europe, and China, have all experienced negative impacts inrecent times due to global instabilities and reduced demand.

Low demand has dampened Vietnam's economic momentum, leading to adecrease in economic growth. The import and export turnover has declined,impacting industrial production value.

Director of the CentralInstitute for Economic Management (CIEM)'s General Research Department NguyenAnh Duong said to achieve robust economic growth, Vietnam needsto do its utmost from various perspectives, including reform, policymanagement, and maintaining a stable and favourable economic environment forinvestors.

In the first scenario, Vietnam’s GDP is predicted to expand by 5.34% in 2023. - Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)

Maintaining macroeconomic stability serves as thefoundation, but it's still important to create a favourable environment and improvecapital absorption capacity, Duong stressed.

Duong put forth three growth scenarios for Vietnam in 2023.

In the first scenario, Vietnam’s GDP is predicted to expand by5.34% in 2023, with exports for the whole year decreasing by 5.64% and theaverage Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.43%. The country is expectedto enjoy a trade surplus of 9.1 billion USD.

In the second one, CIEM expects the country's GDP will rise by 5.72%,with the export turnover decreasing by 3.66%, and the average CPI increasing by3.87%. The trade balance will reach a surplus of approximately 10.3 billionUSD.

The third scenario forecasts a more positive global economiccontext with improvements in growth recovery and credit and public investmentdisbursement, business environment and labour productivity; a significantreduction in supply chain disruptions, decreased inflation in the US, more favourableweather conditions, and Vietnam’s determined reforms and effective management.

CIEM expects the country’s GDP growth to surge by 6.46%in 2023. Accordingly, full-year exports will decrease by only 2.17%, while theaverage CPI increasing by 4.39%. The country will enjoy a trade surplus of around6.8 billion USD.

Phan Le Thanh Long, CEO of AFA Group, predicted that theexchange rate of VND/USD will slightly increase within 1%./.

VNA