Kuala Lumpur (VNA) – Fiscal credibility, adequate foreign-exchange reserves, currency resilience and institutional implementation capacity are core factors in the framework of ASEAN’s “Fabulous Five” economies, said Shan Saeed, Global Chief Economist at Malaysian proptech group IQI Juwai.
For professional investors, growth is increasingly seen as a “ticket” to enter a market rather than the ultimate destination for investment. Investors are drawing a clearer distinction between economies driven by cyclical growth and those capable of converting growth momentum into sustainable, risk-adjusted returns.
The concept of ASEAN’s “Fabulous Five”, also referred to by Saeed as the ITPV group, comprises Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam. Together, they represent more than 611 million people and a combined nominal GDP of approximately 3.5–3.6 trillion USD.
Talking to the Vietnam News Agency, Saeed said the 2026 growth rankings highlight both the scale and differences among these economies. Malaysia grew 6.0% in the second quarter, bringing first-half growth to 5.7%, driven by manufacturing, services and trade. Indonesia expanded 5.29%, underpinned by domestic demand, investment and downstream industrial development.
Thailand grew 1.9% while the Philippines recorded 2.3%, highlighting the need to improve productivity and accelerate the implementation of investment projects.
Vietnam provides the clearest example of how economic growth can be translated into institutional credibility. Its GDP grew 8.39% in the second quarter and 8.18% in the first half of 2026 while manufacturing expanded 10.23%. Total registered foreign investment during January–July reached 38.06 billion USD, up 58%, and disbursed FDI increased 11.8% to 15.2 billion USD.
The country's foreign trade turnover reached 770.1 billion USD in the first eight months of 2026, up 28.7% year on year. Capital goods and production inputs accounted for 94.1% of total imports, demonstrating strong demand for machinery, equipment, materials and industrial inputs as the economy expands its production capacity.
The expert noted that the next major institutional milestone is expected on September 21, when FTSE Russell is scheduled to reclassify Vietnam from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market following reforms to market accessibility and trading infrastructure.
More than simply an index reclassification, the upgrade will indicate that Vietnam’s capital market structure is moving closer to international institutional standards, he opined.
Overall, Saeed said, the prospects for the “Fabulous Five” remain highly attractive. Malaysia offers financial depth, semiconductor capabilities and increasingly advanced digital infrastructure. Indonesia brings economic scale, strategic resources and the capacity to develop downstream industries. Thailand contributes well-established manufacturing ecosystems and strong integration into regional supply chains. The Philippines offers demographic advantages, a deep services sector and potential for digital economy development. Vietnam combines export-oriented manufacturing, infrastructure development, FDI attraction and capital market reforms.
These five economies are neither growing at the same pace nor exposed to the same level of risk. It is precisely these differences that make the framework useful to global investors, he noted.
Risks remain, ranging from trade fragmentation and exchange-rate volatility to credit pressures and uneven policy implementation. At the same time, capital is increasingly focused on the quality of growth rather than growth rates alone, according to the economist.
Saeed concluded that ASEAN has abundant growth potential. However, substantive and reliable growth is scarcer and therefore more valuable. Growth attracts capital, but national credibility ultimately determines the cost, maturity and sustainability of that capital./.
VNA
