HCM City (VNA) - Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has boosted its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5% from 6.9%, pointing to the economy’s resilience and dynamism despite tariff risks and uncertainties.
According to UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research unit, Vietnam’s GDP expanded 7.52% in the first half from a year earlier, marking the quickest January-June pace since 2011.
The robust first-half results were propelled primarily by a 14% year-on-year surge in exports, bolstered by improved market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs to a baseline 10% rate for trading partners over 90 days.
Tariff uncertainties abated in the second half of 2025 after the US locked in country-specific rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, with Vietnam’s levy settling at 20%.
While tariff pressures remain, UOB expects Vietnam’s exports to grow about 10% in 2025, compared with 14% in 2024, assuming a moderate 1%–5% year-on-year expansion over the remainder of the year.
Other indicators further highlighted the economy’s resilience. Vietnam's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July after three consecutive months below the 50-point contraction threshold. Industrial output rose 9% year-on-year.
Realised FDI reached 13.6 billion USD as of July, up from 12.6 billion USD a year earlier, suggesting full-year inflows could surpass 20 billion USD compared with 25.4 billion USD in 2024.
Amid external headwinds, Vietnam in mid-August unveiled a 48 billion USD infrastructure investment plan covering 250 projects. The Government will finance 129 projects worth 18 billion USD, focusing on urban development and transport. The remaining 121 projects, valued at 30.5 billion USD, will draw on other sources, including foreign companies.
For 2026, UOB maintained its growth forecast at 7%. The Government is targeting GDP growth of 8.3%–8.5% this year.
Given Vietnam’s upbeat second-half outlook and exchange rate pressures on the Vietnamese dong, UOB analysts believed these factors would limit the central bank’s room to ease monetary policy, forecasting its refinancing rate unchanged at 4.5%.
Should business conditions and the labour market weaken markedly, the central bank might slash the refinancing rate to its pandemic-era low of 4%, though that’s outside UOB’s base-case scenario.
On the exchange rate, UOB expected the Vietnamese dong will not fully benefit from a renewed weakening of the US dollar - anticipated once the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle.
Overall, however, currency pressures are set to ease. UOB predicted the VND/USD rate at 26,300 in Q4 2025, 26,200 in Q1 2026 and 26,000 by Q3 2026./.
