Jakarta (VNA) – Indonesia’s economy continues to demonstrate strong resilience, with recession risk kept below 5% thanks to solid macroeconomic fundamentals, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said on April 27.
Airlangga noted that key economic indicators remain positive, helping maintain overall stability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Indonesia recorded growth of 5.11% in 2025, and the government has set a target of 5.4% for 2026. Growth in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated to reach at least 5.5%.
Inflation has been effectively contained at 3.48%, while consumer confidence remains high at 122.9 points. Domestic consumption continues to serve as a key pillar of the economy, contributing around 54% to gross domestic product (GDP).
From an external perspective, Indonesia’s trade performance has remained robust, with the country recording a trade surplus for 70 consecutive months, totalling 148.2 billion USD. External debt is maintained at a safe level of 29.9% of GDP.
According to Airlangga, Indonesia’s financing structure is also resilient, with government bonds largely held by domestic investors, accounting for 87.4%, compared to 12.6% held by foreign investors. This helps reduce exposure to global capital market fluctuations.
International financial institutions have maintained an optimistic outlook on Indonesia. The International Monetary Fund has described the country as one of Asia’s “bright spots”, while the Asian Development Bank forecasts economic growth of around 5.2% in 2026.
The Indonesian economy is also considered less vulnerable to global energy shocks caused by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, due to its relatively low dependence on external energy sources./.
