HCM City (VNA) – Standard Chartered has revised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025 to 7.5%, up from its earlier projection of 6.1%.
The bank also raised its 2026 growth forecast for the country from 6.2% to 7.2%.
In its latest macroeconomic report, Standard Chartered highlighted Vietnam’s growing role in the global supply chain, driven by robust trade performance and deeper integration into global trade through multiple free trade agreements (FTAs).
Total export value reached $42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in key sectors such as electronics and computers (+66.2%), telephones (+17.5%), and machinery (+11.6%).
Imports also rose by 24.9% to $39.8 billion, led by electronics and computer supplies (+43.6%) and machinery (+33.6%), signalling continued expansion in production and industrial capacity.
The bank noted that Vietnam’s external position remains resilient, supported by robust trade and a resilient FX outlook. After being depleted amid USD strength prior to this year, FX reserves are likely to be rebuilt, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and a healthy trade performance.
Domestic credit growth has also accelerated, signalling continued economic recovery even without policy rate cuts. Credit growth is now above 15% year-on-year, reflecting improving business confidence and rising finance demand. Lending growth remains robust, supported by favourable liquidity conditions and government measures to stimulate growth.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be a key growth driver. In the first nine months of 2025, disbursed FDI rose 8.5% to 18.8 billion USD, while registered FDI increased 15.2% to 28.5 billion USD year-on-year.
Standard Chartered economists expect the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5% for the rest of 2025 and 2026, with accommodative conditions supporting investment and expansion.
Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, said Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are evidenced by its successful attraction of strong FDI and robust export growth, solidifying its strategic role in global supply chain diversification and pointing to strong prospects for continued economic expansion.
The bank maintained its forecast for the USD/VND exchange rate at 26,300 in 2025 and 26,750 in 2026, while lowering its inflation projection to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures./.
