Kuala Lumpur (VNA) – Shan Saeed, Chief Economist at Malaysia-based property technology group IQI Juwai, said the latest economic figures of Vietnam have surpassed his earlier forecast of 7–8% growth for 2026 and warranted an upgrade to its growth outlook.
Vietnam’s GDP grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, well above the median forecast of 8.65% in a Bloomberg survey, bringing nine-month growth to 9.01%.
Among ASEAN’s “Fabulous Five”, namely Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, Vietnam demonstrates how industrial depth and effective investment can underpin rapid growth, he said, noting strong investment momentum.
He cited the National Statistics Office under the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance as reporting that total disbursed investment across society surpassed 3.1 quadrillion VND (119.2 billion USD) in the first nine months, up 15.1% year on year, compared with 11.6% in 2025.
Manufacturing and construction remained the main growth drivers, with third-quarter GDP growth accelerating to 9.95% year on year, from 8.15% in the first quarter and 8.81% in the second quarter.
Foreign investors are also turning commitments into actual operating capacity. Registered FDI reached 50.36 billion USD in the first nine months, up 76.4% year on year, while disbursed FDI hit 21.07 billion USD, the highest nine-month figure in five years. Manufacturing and processing attracted the largest share of newly registered FDI, at 13.38 billion USD, or 45.8% of the total.
Saeed forecast Vietnam’s fourth-quarter growth at 9–10% year on year, making annual growth of above 9% increasingly achievable.
Infrastructure development, manufacturing momentum and domestic consumption would support the outlook, he said.
Macroeconomic stability remains a key test. Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.62% month on month in September, while average CPI increased 4.52% in the first nine months and core inflation rose 4.26%.
Meanwhile, total foreign trade reached 888.02 billion USD in the first nine months, up 30.4% from a year earlier. Exports rose 24.5%, and imports increased 36.7%.
The economist said Vietnam’s opportunity lies in turning the current investment wave into sustained productivity gains. Capital is driving the expansion, disbursement is demonstrating its momentum, while policy discipline will be key to sustaining it./.
