Hanoi (VNA) – The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has maintained its 2026 growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region at 4%, while raising its inflation projection from 1.4% to 1.8% due to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
According to AMRO’s interim regional economic outlook update released on June 2, the conflict has entered its fourth month, far exceeding earlier expectations that tensions would ease within two months. The prolonged crisis has driven up energy, commodity and logistics costs, while disruptions have begun to affect key industrial inputs such as helium, sulphur and fertilisers.
Despite these challenges, the region has remained resilient. Firm domestic demand and strong technology exports helped ASEAN+3 economies maintain growth momentum in the first quarter of 2026.
However, AMRO warned that rising cost pressures are increasingly weighing on energy-importing economies. The organisation noted that while widespread market dislocations have so far been avoided, the risk of further disruptions remains significant if the conflict persists.
Under its adverse scenario, AMRO projected that if Brent crude oil prices average 125 USD per barrel in 2026, compared with a baseline forecast of 95 USD, and supply chain disruptions intensify, regional economic growth could slow sharply to 2.5%. Inflation, meanwhile, could rise to 3.5%.
Dong He, AMRO’s Chief Economist, urged policymakers to respond flexibly by combining targeted short-term support measures with longer-term efforts to strengthen energy security, enhance supply chain resilience and deepen regional integration.
The ASEAN+3 grouping comprises the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) together with China, Japan and the Republic of Korea./.
