Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s economy needs to accelerate sharply and achieve an average growth rate of 11.7% in the second half of 2026 to reach the Government’s annual growth target of 10%, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Finance.
Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, head of the System of National Accounts Department under the NSO, has granted an interviewed to VietnamPlus, mentioning the challenges facing the economy for the remainder of the year.
She said that, based on the H1 GDP growth, the NSO updated the detailed growth scenario for 2026. The growth stood at 7.94% in Q1and 8.39% in Q2, bringing H1 expansion to 8.18%. To achieve the 10% full-year target, third-quarter growth will need to reach 11.16%, bringing nine-month growth to 9.19%, while fourth-quarter growth will have to reach 12.09%.
This will put considerable pressure on the economy, requiring an average pace of 11.7% in the final six months, Hanh noted.
However, the H1 growth rate of 8.18%, 0.55 percentage points higher than the 7.63% recorded in the same period last year, demonstrated a relatively steady recovery and provided a foundation for stronger growth in the months ahead.
On the supply side, all three major economic sectors contributed positively. The agro-forestry-fishery sector grew 3.87% in the first six months, continuing to provide a stable support pillar for the economy thanks to effective structural transformation, greater application of high technology and tighter management of production unit codes to meet export requirements.
The industry and construction sector remained a key growth driver, expanding 9.81% in H1. Manufacturing and processing expanded 10.23% and contributed 2.73 percentage points to overall GDP growth, supported by the recovery of orders for electronic components and computers. Mineral mining maintained continuous growth since the third quarter of 2025, rising 7.59% in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, construction accelerated 10.28%. Electricity production and distribution increased 12.19% in the second quarter, ensuring energy supply for production.
The service sector also posted solid growth of 8.09% in H1, with transport and warehousing rising 10.18% and wholesale – retail 9.67%. Meanwhile, public administration and social security activities contracted 9.71% in the second quarter amid cuts in recurrent public spending.
From the demand side, final consumption increased 8.15% in H1, with household consumption rising 9.48% as purchasing power improved and consumers increasingly shifted toward environmentally friendly products. Meanwhile, government consumption edged down 0.05%.
Gross capital formation increased 15.2%, while inventory accumulation surged 173.21% as businesses imported components for subsequent production.
Total foreign trade turnover rose 27.1%. Although exports of goods and services increased 21%, imports grew faster at 33.4%, largely reflecting demand for those serving artificial intelligence technology and data centres.
The trade deficit could put some pressure on the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth, Hanh noted.
For the coming period, the official said the economy will face challenges from both external and domestic factors. Rising trade protectionism and weaker aggregate demand in major export markets could slow exports. Meawhile, higher logistics costs and elevated international interest rates could place additional pressure on the exchange rate and imported inflation.
Domestically, despite improvements in public investment disbursement, difficulties remain in site clearance and supplies of construction materials in some localities. Businesses, particularly small- and medium-sized enterprises, continue to face cash-flow constraints and limited access to credit. An uneven property-market recovery and pressure to manage prices of State-regulated goods and services are also major challenges.
To achieve the growth target, Hanh said Vietnam needs to combine traditional growth drivers with new ones. Public investment will remain a key driver, particularly major transport infrastructure projects such as the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Hai Phong railway and metro lines in Hanoi. The larger projects are expected to generate spillover effects for construction and services.
Domestic consumption should also be stimulated through year-end shopping programmes, and the recovery of manufacturing and processing should be sustained.
At the same time, attracting high-quality foreign direct investment into high-tech industries, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and data centres will create new production capacity in the medium and long term. Science – technology and the digital economy, including e-commerce and digital payments, can help reduce production costs and improve labour productivity.
Institutional reform and administrative procedure simplification will also be essential to removing bottlenecks related to land and investment, unlocking social resources and creating a stronger stepping stone for faster and more sustainable economic growth, she concluded./.
