Sydney (VNA) – Vietnam and Southeast Asia at large should integrate energy security with energy transition into a single agenda to ensure sustainable growth, suggested Ahmed Albayrak, Research Associate at the Indo-Pacific Development Centre under Australia’s Lowy Institute.
In an interview granted to the Vietnam News Agency, Albayrak stressed the need to prioritise the implementation of existing plans such as Vietnam’s Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) and the ASEAN Power Grid. Focus should be placed on upgrading transmission systems, expanding energy storage, developing flexible gas capacity and promoting demand response, rather than setting additional capacity targets, he said.
These measures are essential to meet the rapidly rising energy demand while reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels like coal, petroleum, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) which, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, increase both energy security risks and emissions.
He added that this requires reforms on tariffs, SOE governance and contracting so private and concessional capital can scale up renewables and flexibility fast enough to meet soaring demand without locking in more import-dependent coal, oil and LNG, moving the region’s focus from import-security to system-security while sustaining rapid growth.
Southeast Asia is expected to account for about a quarter of global energy demand growth by 2035, yet it remains heavily dependent on imported oil and gas, much of it from the Middle East, according to the expert.
Highlighting Australia’s experience, Albayrak said the country has faced vulnerabilities amid recent geopolitical tensions, particularly due to low fuel stockpiles, heavy reliance on imported refined products, and limited domestic refining capacity.
In response, the Australian Government has authorised releases from emergency fuel reserves as part of a coordinated effort led by the IEA. These releases, along with temporary easing of stockholding requirements, have helped prevent widespread shortages.
The Australian Government and independent experts say national fuel supply is secure at least until mid April, with problems concentrated in specific locations where demand spiked, Albayrak stated.
Because Australia starts with only around 38 days of stocks, each release shrinks a thin buffer; if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for months, these measures at best delay the point at which rationing or much more severe demand side restrictions would be needed. Replenishing reserves later will likely be expensive and difficult if global prices remain elevated, and stock draws do nothing to change underlying import dependence.
According to the expert, recent oil market shocks are reinforcing the long-term shift toward more secure and low-carbon energy systems. Many economies are accelerating investments in renewables, electrification and system resilience, even as they rely on fossil fuels in the short term.
Higher fossil prices are lifting near‑term revenues and encouraging some producers to invest in new oil and gas capacity, and recent IEA outlooks show upward revisions to long‑term fossil demand relative to earlier energy‑transition scenarios. LNG in particular is being cast as a strategic asset for both producers and importers in Europe and Asia, which could lock in infrastructure for a long time.
Meanwhile, if supply shortages persist, the world could enter an inflationary period marked by higher interest rates, which would drive up financing costs for renewable energy projects compared to previous levels. In theory, higher oil and gas prices could justify investment in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Despite these challenges, Albayrak emphasised that the long-term trend is moving towards diversified, domestically anchored and low-carbon energy systems although the path will vary across regions./.
VNA
