Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam’s economy is entering the final months of 2026 with a solid growth foundation, supported by strong production, consumption, exports and investment. While the country has considerable room to sustain high growth, experts warn that both external uncertainties and domestic risks will need to be addressed.
Growth momentum strengthened
Vietnam’s GDP expanded 8.18% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with growth drivers relatively broad-based across economic sectors.
In the first eight months, industrial production rose 11.9%, with manufacturing and processing up 12.9%. Retail sales of goods and consumer services increased 13.3%. Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) reached 17.25 billion USD, up 12%, while exports rose 22.4% to 374.84 billion USD and imports increased 35.3% to 395.3 billion USD. By September 3, public investment disbursement had reached 513.3 trillion VND (19.7 billion USD), equivalent to 50.2% of the target assigned by the Prime Minister.
Experts from the Institute of Vietnam and World Economy under the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences noted the quality of recent growth as the high growth rate has been recorded against an increasingly higher comparative base. Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.02% in 2025, the highest rate in Southeast Asia. According to a joint report by Bain & Company, DBS and Vriens & Partners, the six largest Southeast Asian economies, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam, averaged 5.1% growth in 2024-2025. Vietnam, however, recorded average growth of 7.5%, compared with 2.7% for Thailand.
On September 23, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2026 GDP growth to 7.8%, from 7.2%, and revised its 2027 forecast upward from 7% to 7.6%.
Bain & Company, DBS and Vriens & Partners project that the six major Southeast Asian economies will grow by an average 4.8% annually in 2026-2035, with Vietnam continuing to be a leading growth driver.
At a recent workshop, experts from the Institute of Vietnam and World Economy forecast Vietnam’s 2026 growth at around 8.5%, significantly above the latest ADB forecast.
Growth drivers and risks
Despite differences in forecasts, analysts point to similar growth drivers, including manufacturing and processing, domestic consumption, FDI and supportive policies. Domestic experts also highlight the role of public investment, tourism and transport recovery, additional FDI capital for industry, and improved corporate cash flows.
However, the outlook is not without risks. ADB warns that rising global uncertainty could put pressure on exports, investment, inflation and exchange rates. Greater reliance on investment and credit could also increase risks to liquidity and financial stability, while weaker global demand would directly affect Vietnam’s highly trade-dependent economy.
Domestic experts point to slower growth in real purchasing power, high capital costs, rapidly rising imports and fluctuations in energy prices. Additional tariff measures in major export markets could also heighten trade risks.
They therefore recommend accelerating public investment, shortening tax-refund and payment procedures, improving businesses’ access to credit, preparing energy scenarios and helping firms meet market-specific standards and rules of origin.
ADB likewise calls for prudent macroeconomic management, inflation control, financial stability and structural reforms, with investment directed toward areas capable of improving productivity.
Overall, Vietnam has a solid basis for maintaining high growth in 2026. The key challenge is to turn existing momentum into stronger productivity, investment efficiency and economic resilience, thereby creating a sustainable foundation for growth in the years ahead./.
