Hanoi (VNA) – The Vietnamese Government is doubling down on its double-digit expansion pledge even as 26 of the country’s 34 cities and provinces are forecast to undershoot their own growth goals this year, betting that a barrage of policy firepower can close the gap.
Localities under pressure to accelerate growth
A Ministry of Finance (MoF) report submitted to the Government showed that Ho Chi Minh City is to fall short of its target by about 1.7 percentage points, Hanoi 2.75 points, Bac Ninh 1.1 points, and Quang Ninh 0.85 points as of May.
Ho Chi Minh City’s gross regional domestic product (GRDP) is estimated to climb 8.71% in the second quarter, taking the first-half pace to 8.47%. Full-year expansion is seen at roughly 8.51%, well short of the double-digit threshold that would require about 10.2% growth, leaving a gap of 1.7 points.
Hanoi’s challenge is starker. The capital is expected to grow 7.64% in the second quarter and 7.87% in the first half. Current projections point to 8.25% for the full year, leaving it 2.75 percentage points adrift of its 11% goal.
Only a handful of provinces are maintaining adequate momentum. Phu Tho is forecast to deliver 12.32% GRDP growth in the second quarter, 10.87% in the first half, and 11.25% for the full year, higher than its 11% target. Ninh Binh clocks in at 12.11%, 12.04%, and 11.39%, respectively. Thai Nguyen is projected at 10.73%, 9.38%, and 11.6%, while Ha Tinh is expected to reach 11.6%, 12.2%, and 10.96%.
Overall, the number of localities that merely need to sustain current momentum remain thin. Most cities and provinces still face gaps between performance and ambition, demanding an aggressive second-half push.
No retreat becomes a hard line
At the Government’s regular May meeting, Minister of Finance Ngo Van Tuan called for economic management to remain tightly anchored to the double-digit growth goal, with inflation and macro stability under continuous watch.
Prime Minister Le Minh Hung drove the point further, demanding drastic action and extraordinary efforts. Ministries and agencies were ordered to track global, regional and domestic changes, build more detailed macro scenarios tailored to each sector and area, and prepare policy responses with specific buffers against external shocks, all while refusing to budge from established targets.
To fuel growth, he instructed the State Bank of Vietnam to deploy policy tools that preserve market liquidity and steady interest rates. The central bank must also scrutinise deposit and lending structures, coordinate monetary and fiscal measures closely with the MoF, and speed credit into nationally significant growth-oriented projects.
The MoF was told to pursue a reasonably expansionary fiscal policy with clear priorities. Measures include extended tax-and-fee relief such as reductions or deferrals for value-added tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, and land rents to inject more resources into households and businesses.
The PM also pushed for accelerating flagship products linked to the International Financial Centre, stronger support for localities chasing FDI, clearing bottlenecks ensnaring major projects, and faster disbursement of public investment and national target programmes.
Growth mandate lands on key hubs
Hitting the national target will force key economic hubs to shoulder a disproportionate share. Simple math shows that Ho Chi Minh City would need to lift growth by an extra 1.7 percentage points, Hanoi 2.75 points, and Bac Ninh 1.1 points.
The task is daunting and demands bold policy, plus effective local action. Early signals from localities point to resolve.
At a socio-economic conference reviewing the five-month performance, Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee Chairman Nguyen Van Duoc ordered departments and districts to fire up growth engines, with public investment above all.
According to him, effective public investment could contribute an estimated 3–4% to economic growth. Authorities have therefore ordered faster progress on major projects, including Metro Line No. 2 connecting Ben Thanh and Tham Luong. Projects with zero or exceptionally low disbursement rates risk losing their capital allocations.
So far, the city’s public investment disbursement rate is stuck at just 16–17%, far below the 30% target for the first quarter and 60–70% for the second.
Hanoi is pushing a similar path. At its regular June meeting, Chairman of the municipal People’s Committee Vu Dai Thang urged swifter public capital spending, zeroing in on strategic infrastructure like Ring Road 4, Ring Road 2.5, National Highway 6, Red River bridges, and urban rail lines.
Its leaders conceded that reaching double-digit growth remains a huge lift and requires maximum effort through the rest of the second quarter and the entire second half. Beyond public investment, Hanoi is also aiming for FDI, particularly in hi-tech sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence./.
