Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s current energy roadmap is on the right track and highly ambitious, reflecting a shift from a “supply security” mindset to one focused on building a modern energy system, reflecting the country’s strong determination to modernise its economy under the vision of Party General Secretary and State President To Lam, according to a Malaysian scholar.
Talking to the Vietnam News Agency’s correspondents in Malaysia, Collins Chong Yew Keat, an analyst on foreign, security, and strategic affairs at University of Malaya (UM) said amid mounting geopolitical volatility, Vietnam faces a pivotal opportunity to recalibrate its energy model toward sustainability, self-reliance and regional competitiveness. According to the expert, this process centres on reshaping the power mix by increasing the portion of renewables and gradually reducing reliance on coal-fired power. This is not only an environmental imperative but also an economic strategy to leverage Vietnam’s strengths in offshore wind and solar energy. Specifically, the country aims to raise the share of non-hydropower renewables to 21% by 2030, while cutting coal share from 52% to 43%, tapping into two of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing energy sectors (wind and solar power).
Collins stressed that Vietnam’s opportunity goes beyond meeting domestic demand, extending to the potential to become a regional hub for clean electricity supply. Power interconnection projects with Malaysia and Singapore mark initial steps toward joining the ASEAN Power Grid—an emerging regional energy architecture.
This means Vietnam could evolve from being merely an “energy consumer” into a “strategic supplier,” he said.
At the same time, market-based mechanisms such as direct power purchase agreements (DPPA) are also helping build a more flexible energy ecosystem, attracting investment while enabling businesses to meet stringent decarbonisation requirements across global supply chains, thereby safeguarding export competitiveness, he noted.
However, the path to realising green energy ambitions still faces serious systemic challenges, with the transmission network emerging as a key bottleneck. Grid congestion and curtailment have directly undermined the economic efficiency of many projects, reflecting a classic risk where the pace of power generation approvals outstrips grid upgrades.
To address this, Collins stressed the need to enhance system flexibility through investments in energy storage, reserve capacity, improved forecasting and digitalised grid management. Equally critical are consistent regulations and bankable policies, as the sector’s capital needs are substantial and investor confidence remains sensitive to policy uncertainty.
He cautioned that replacing fuel dependency with reliance on imported technology is not a sustainable solution. Vietnam, he said, must strengthen domestic capabilities across technology and material supply chains. Another key element under consideration in Vietnam’s evolving energy security strategy is the potential revival of nuclear power. If properly managed, nuclear energy could provide stable, low-emission baseload supply, complementing the intermittency of wind and solar while ensuring a balanced energy portfolio, avoiding overreliance on any single fuel source or technology.
More broadly, the concept of energy security in the new era is evolving from a narrow focus on supply to a system-wide approach encompassing grid infrastructure, digital systems, cybersecurity and technology supply chains, Collins said, stressing that Vietnam should treat energy transition and energy security as a unified strategy rather than separate objectives.
The scholar said in this context, prioritising early investment in grid and storage infrastructure while maintaining affordable energy prices will be crucial to avoid economic shocks. He advised that Vietnam should avoid pursuing decarbonisation pathways in a way that would trigger sharp shocks to industrial and household electricity prices.
He also recommended competitive bidding, electricity market reforms and targeted support for vulnerable groups, instead of broad subsidies that distort the market.
Strategic optionality will also be vital for resilience, including fuel stockpiling, diversification of LNG and oil supplies, and the development of domestic manufacturing for selected clean energy components, he noted.
According to the expert, Vietnam is entering the most challenging phase—from planning to execution—where financial, infrastructural and governance challenges are all surfacing at once. Yet this stage also clarifies opportunities. If the country can overcome systemic bottlenecks and balance security, transition and cost considerations, it has the potential to emerge as a key energy pillar in Southeast Asia.
In that scenario, energy security will evolve from a defensive shield into a strategic lever to elevate national standing, offering a long-term solution to challenges at present, he said./.
